Coming up with tiers is the best way to judge QBs. Why?
Wins are too simplistic. They do not take into account circumstances – some teams are better than others. Some QBs have better weapons and defenses. And it has been disproven – look at how much Matthew Stafford’s career has changed going from LA to Detroit. Did Stafford suddenly “turn into a winner”? Or was it that Detroit never gave him a Super Bowl caliber team?
Stats do not tell the whole story. Some QBs play on teams with defensive coaches that prefer to spend most of the money of defense. So those QBs will typically struggle to have elite numbers. Meanwhile other QBs play on teams with offensive head coaches or front offices that are willing to spend on big name receivers that can help them put up big numbers. A lot of people don’t realize that so much of what allows a QB to win MVP is circumstantial. The right weapons, the right coach, the right era.
That’s why it is best to put players in tiers, based off of their strengths and weaknesses. Debilitating weaknesses can slide them down a tier, great strengths can boost them up.
GOLDEN QB TIER
Good enough to win on a non-Super Bowl Caliber team, and win multiples on a Super Bowl caliber team.
Their ability to win a ring with a team that wasn’t Super Bowl caliber… and even do it more than once, is why they get GOAT consideration.
Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes
These guys have won rings with teams that were loaded, but also teams that were lacking.
Mahomes won with defenses that were not really Super Bowl caliber (2019, 2022). And Brady won with offensive supporting casts that were not Super Bowl caliber (2001, 2003, 2016). This is the true value of an elite QB – they can elevate a team – and a big reason why Brady is the GOAT and why Mahomes got consideration was how they were able to consistently lead their teams to Super Bowls even in years they really shouldn’t have. It added to the “inevitability” factor.
How did they do it?
Brady’s generational processing abilities allowed him to elevate receiving corps and scheme deficiencies – he did not always need a receiver that could easily beat man coverage, or a scheme to generate wide open receivers. His ability to quickly analyze the defensive coverage, analyze what the cornerback or free safety is doing based on his stance and hip movement, while staying composed in the pocket and keeping his footwork tight and sensing pressure, allowed him to skip his read progressions, and always find the best available receiver, play in and play out. And it helped him elevate mediocre-to-bad offensive lines like in 2014, one of the few times his lines weren’t good.
And Mahomes cavalcade of talents – his mobility, off-platform throws, escapability, sheer arm strength, and his own processing – especially in the quick game with screens and RPOs – allowed him to also elevate a receiving corps that dwindled outside of Kelce after Tyreek Hill was traded, and allow the Chiefs to score and burn clock. This gives him many answers in the clutch as well – as good of a playcaller as Andy Reid and Bienemy are, Mahomes’s ability to run so many different types of plays makes it easy for the team to have answers in crunch time.
Qualifiers:
Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, and Nick Foles – this comes down to era, especially the latter two. The 2010s era of Cover 1 and Cover 3, constant blown coverages, and bad defenses allowed mid-QBs to get rings they shouldn’t have.
Super Bowl QB Tier: Good enough to win multiples on a Super Bowl Caliber Roster
This is what most Elite QBs win with… obviously… Joe Montana, John Elway, Bradshaw, Aikman, etc. all had elite traits – whether it was amazing accuracy, consistent read progressions, or mobility, etc.
Because they have enough strengths and skills to be good in the regular season and playoffs year in and year out, and have enough answers against good defenses. Their mobility can bail them out, their arm strength to throw in tight windows, their command of the offense, all that.
Guys who didn’t, but are good enough to do so:
Aaron Rodgers
Yes, Aaron Rodgers is good enough to do so. He has elite QB traits – his arm, mobility, pre-snap adjustments. The reason he isn’t a tier above is because his post-snap game is more basic – and when he doesn’t have a clear lane to extend the play, he has a tendency to take sacks. He doesn’t have otherworldly sack avoidance like Mahomes, nor does he have advanced post-snap processing like Brady to avoid being fooled by things like free safety rotations.
But he is obviously good enough to win multiples on a Super Bowl caliber team. Why didn’t he? Because Rodgers played with very few Super Bowl caliber teams. His healthy 2010 Packers team, and his 2021 Packers team were the only real Super Bowl Caliber teams.
Many of the teams he had in between and since were nothing special at all – either bad defenses, or good defenses with lackluster offensive supporting casts. He had good o-lines and solid schemes but those teams were not Super Bowl caliber. It’s why if he had won a ring in years like 2014 or 2020, or even just win in 2021, it would have gone a long way to putting him in that GOAT tier without even winning up to 4 rings, let alone 7.
Dan Marino
This shouldn’t even be questioned. Marino also played with VERY few Super Bowl caliber rosters. The only reason he is not in the Brady tier is because of years like 1985 and 1997, where he had opportunities to sneak in a difficult ring with a team that wasn’t Super Bowl caliber.
Drew Brees fits this. He has 1 ring, and played really well in other playoff years like 2012 and 2017 where his defense screwed him. And in the 2018 NFC title game, was victim of a horribly missed PI call. Brees played at the level of a multi-ring QB. We know he is great.
Josh Allen
Yes, Allen is good enough to win a Super Bowl, multiple in fact. His arm strength, pre-snap reads, his mobility, accuracy, are all top-notch. He is not some average QB.
The problem is the Bills haven’t given him a Super Bowl caliber roster the past few years. (Very few All-Pro caliber players since 2020). So as a result, he is often in situations in the playoffs where he has to score 30 in crunch time, often without an elite, game-changing playmaker he can throw to, so he may fail to come through. His best receiver
He might not make the right read when it matters, and we will act like he is a failure for that… which is stupid… because many many QBs have won rings without having to make the right read that often.
Notice what all of these QBs have in common:
2024 Hurts, 2025 Darnold, 2005 Big Ben, 1998 Elway, 2002 Johnson, 2012 Flacco, 1999 Kurt Warner, 1989 Montana, 1984 Montana, 1997 Favre, etc.
They either never had to lead a real game-winning drive in these Super Bowls, or they were throwing to wide open receivers all game long.
It’s really only Brady and Mahomes who were consistently surgical with their decision making for their rings (and even in 2019, Mahomes didn’t face that many complex defenses in post season run… he was great yes, but it was really 2022 and 2023 that he had to consistently make the right coverage reads).
Lamar Jackson also fits in this camp – he had a terrorist OC in Greg Roman (who didn’t let him audible or change protections pre-snap), and he only just started having good weapons when they drafted Flowers in 2023 and got Derrick Henry in 2024. 2023 was probably the closest thing to a super bowl caliber roster Lamar has had. Their defense was incredible, and the offensive-line was good. They had a good-ish scheme. And Lamar did not perform will in the AFC Title game.
But of course the year after, Zay Flowers was injured and didn’t play in the 2024 divisional round against Buffalo… leaving him with Mark Andrews… a good tight end that is known for being ineffective in the playoffs. So even the accusations of Lamar being some playoff choker are overblown. He only really truly underachieved in 2023.
Average QB Tier: Good Enough to Win 1 Ring on a Super Bowl Caliber Team
(Will Add later)
Subpar QB Tier: Not Good Enough to win
These guys could theoretically win if they have a mega-loaded team, but too much has to go right in their favor. The odds are just so low, that they effectively can’t win. They are too flawed.
Bryce Young
His arm strength is so-so, he is at his best when he can throw lobbers. His short statue prevents him from seeing above the offensive line. Even with a stacked receiving corps and amazing o-line, if he runs into an amazing defense in the playoffs, his arm strength (both power, and distance) would get tested, and he might fall.
He would need an elite defense and running game together – and even that’s not enough.
As we saw, in 2024 Hurts’ ability to do designed runs was still needed. Same with Darnold’s accuracy in 2025 against the Rams. Even Purdy’s sneaky scrambling ability allowed him to beat the Lions in a high scoring comeback to make the Super Bowl.
So as we see, even on a loaded team, it will rarely be easy.
Bryce Young would basically need the 2000 Ravens defense equivalent, so he could literally get away with not having to score.
Even Drake Maye could not get away with low scoring games forever – it caught up to him in the Super Bowl.
And Bryce Young is less talented than all these guys. The odds of him winning are low.
Conclusion
A QB has traits and skills. Some are elite, some are frauds. But overall, “QB Wins” just doesn’t hold up under scrutiny when many non-elite QBs have won rings, and when many elite QBs have won much more rings than other QBs who they are not that much better than. (For example, we think Brady is the best QB ever, but it’s hard to say that he is 6 rings better than Brees or Rodgers. Those guys probably should have 2-3 rings. Same with Mahomes – the gap in rings between him and Allen and Lamar shouldn’t be 3-0. He is not that much better than them.)
Situation matters. Teammates matter. Coaching matters. We have seen QBs get away with not having great performances or even playing awful but still winning because their defense just played that well.
This doesn’t mean QBs are interchangeable. No. There still are QBs that stand above the rest and can do things others can’t, allowing them to win rings that most QBs would not have.
That’s why the best way to judge QBs, is by tiers.
We will be adding more QBs next! Share and leave comments to see who you want to have added!
