Every AFC Team’s Past, Current, and Potential Championship Windows In the 21st Century 

This piece shows the window for each AFC team in the last 20+ years and what each teams’ current window is (if applicable) or could be (if things materialized).

The starting point, duration, and ending point of a team’s championship window is usually determined by the key catalyst (a head coach, quarterback, collection of elite players, and or a combination of those groups). Usually, a window is 4-6 years but some team’s windows can be as short as 3 seasons. Reasons for that can come from the key stars aging out, the quarterback play deteriorating to the point where the team isn’t able to be competitive moving forward, or a head coach/coordinator leaving with their scheme that their good (but not great) players benefited from. Some windows can continue even if a few key players leave as long as there is viable replacement.

In some instances, a team can enter a season with them and everyone else knowing their window has closed. In other instances, the expectations of the group can be high with the same core but then the season simply ends badly with the realization that this group is done and changes will be made. As a result, that season was the last year of the window. In instances, a window can be as high as 7 or even 8 but those are in unique cases where the team has a franchise quarterback in his prime with teammates that were also in their prime and kept around.

Generally speaking, a window tends to end when a group of important players leave without that many direct replacements. As a result, the identity and structure is changed. Usually a season or two in-between windows are known as transition years because that is when some players and coaches leave while a new group comes in to eventually form a core for the next window. Some end up just having a long rebuilding process of not having a championship team for many years. An iteration of a playoff team could be formed but they fail to sustain success for more than 2 years within a 3-4 year period, thus preventing a true window from being formed. The following shows the windows for each team.

The best accomplishment for each window will be stated such as a team winning the Super Bowl, the number of conference title appearances, or it simply being that they made the playoffs. if a team has a strong feat such as making the Super Bowl or conference title game, then it usually won’t be stated that they made the playoffs multiple times since it isn’t their greatest feat.

AFC East

New England Patriots

• 1994-1998
  • This window was the Drew Bledsoe window that included players like Teddy Bruschi (drafted in 1996), Terry Glenn (drafted in 1996), Willie McGinest (drafted in 1994), Lawyer Milloy (drafted in 1996), Ty Law (drafted in 1995), Ben Coates (drafted in 1999), Curtis Martin (drafted in 1995), Troy Brown (drafted in 1993).
  • Bill Parcels was the coach until after 1996 when Pete Carroll came to join this group.
  • The team made the Super Bowl in 1996.
  • By 1999, the team had another mediocre season. At this point Ben Coates was no longer a dominant tight end and the team was 2 years removed from when star running back Curtis Martin left while Robert Edwards never became a viable successor due to early career injuries.
  • After another coaching change that led to Bill Belichick being there, the team went 5-11 in 2000 and it looked like the window was closed since the previous few seasons did not lead to a deep playoff run.

• 2001 – This is a unique year because one could argue it was the final year of a window since the team won the Super Bowl while one could argue it was a transition year (lightning in a bottle type run) as Tom Brady took over.
  • 2002- This was a transition year as Belichick admitted he had to make defensive schematic changes after 2002 while Tom Brady went through some ups and downs in 2002 while trying to establish himself as a top quarterback. Entering 2002, the team moved away from some players like Glenn and Miloy.
  • We went as far back to the 1990s for this team because it ties into the 2000s runs in regards to the personnel.

• 2003-2008
  • This is the first Tom Brady-Bill Belichick window. This was when the Patriots proved 2001 was not a fluke and had established a dynasty with Belichick forming a great defense for most of those years while Brady fully established himself as a top 2 quarterback in the league year in and year out.
  • A few players from the previous window were important in the early years of this run until phasing out in the mid-2000s such as Brown, McGinest, and Law. Meanwhile, others were still in their prime for this whole run such as Bruschi along with Richard Seymour (drafted in 2001) and Matt Light (drafted in 2001) and Mike Vrabel (signed in 2001). The team added Marvin Harrison to the defense entering 2003.
  • A few players were added to this group for a few years such as Asante Samuel (drafted in 2003), Ben Watson (drafted in 2004), Deion Branch (drafted in 2002), and Corey Dillon (signed in 2004). Vince Wilfork was drafted in 2004 and stayed for a decade. Logan Mankins was drafted in 2005.
  • The team won the Super Bowl in 2003 and 2004. They also made an AFC Championship game in 2006.
  • The group added Wes Welker and Randy Moss towards the end of this run in 2007 to bolster it offensively. The team made the Super Bowl in 2007 after a 16-0 perfect season.
  • 2008 was supposed to be another true Super Bowl contending year as the last season of this whole group but its ceiling wasn’t reached despite a good season because of Tom Brady’s injury.
  • Jerod Mayo was drafted in 2008 and was good right away.
  • 2009 was a transition. A lot of the aforementioned guys left and or retired after 2008. It was mostly just Brady, Welker, and Moss that were there in 2009.

• 2010-2012
  • This is the second Tom Brady-Bill Belichick window. It seems sort of short. This is when Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez were drafted in 2010. Randy Moss was traded away very early in 2010.
  • Nate Solder was drafted in 2011 while Dont’a Hightower and Chandler Jones were drafted in 2012.
  • Other key players included Sebastian Volmer (drafted in 2009), Mayo, Mankins, Welker, and Wilfork.
  • Aqib Talib came in 2012 to bolster the group.
  • The team made a Super Bowl in 2011. They also made the AFC Championship game in 2012 and 2013.
  • 2013 could be seen as a transition year because of the departure of Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez who were huge parts of that core. The team tried to replace Welker with Amendola but Edelman (drafted in 2009) ended up being a key contributor moving forward for the following window. As a result, the style of offense the played well ended up changing up during the next window. Talib also left after 2013.

• 2014-2019
  • This is the third Tom Brady-Bill Belichick window. Players like Solder, McCourty, Hightower, Jones, and Gronkowski (already peaking early in career) were hitting their prime.
  • The team bolstered with Darrel Revis and Brandon Browner for 2014 and had successors with Logan Ryan (drafted in 2013) and Malcom Butler (undrafted in 2014) right after that season.
  • Some key players from the previous early 2010’s window left early in this window such as Mankins leaving after 2013, Wilfork leaving after 2014, and Mayo leaving after 2015.
  • As players like Volmer and Jones left (after 2016 and 2015, respectively), a few players like Shaq Mason (drafted in 2015) and Trey Flowers (drafted in 2015) filled in and contributed.
  • The team won the Super Bowl in 2014, 2016, and 2018. They made and AFC Championship game in 2015 and another Super Bowl in 2017 but lost both.
  • In 2017, Stephen Gilmore joined the group and soon replaced Butler after 2017. Gronkowski left after 2018 and Brady left after 2019. Edelman and Gilmore left after the 2020 transition year.
• For the current Patriots, if they are able to bounce back with their current group and make the playoffs then 2021-present can be considered a new window since it would show that 2022 was just a bump in a road that was worsened due to the offensive coordinator fiasco that season. If it is a window then it will be the Mac Jones-Bill Belichick window. Otherwise, 2021 will just be seen as a one year team.

New York Jets

• 2001-2006
  • This is the Chad Pennington window. Herm Edwards was the coach from 2001-2005 before Eric Mangini took over in 2006.
  • Pennington took over as the starter in 2001.
  • The other key players include center Kevin Mawae, Curtis Martin (signed in 1998), Shaun Ellis (drafted in 2000), John Abraham (drafted in 2000), Wayne Chrebet (was productive until after 2002), Laveranues Coles (became productive in 2002), Jonathan Vilma (drafted in 2004),
  • Mawae, Abraham, and Chrebet left after 2005. Martin left after 2006. Coles left after 2008. Ellis left after 2010. Vilma left after 2007.
  • The team made the playoffs in seasons when Pennington was healthy.
  • The window basically closed after 2006 due to those aforementioned roster changes. The team was 1-7 with Pennington before he got hurt and the team went 4-12. The many draft picks from 2007 that contributed to later window (stated below) also support the fact that 2007 is a transition year.

• 2008-2012
  • This is the Darrelle Revis window. Revis was drafted in 2007. Mangini was still the coach in 2008. Brett Favre signed in 2008 to help the Jets compete for a super bowl but after their 9-7 finished, Favre left and Mangini was fired. Rex Ryan became the coach in 2009.
  • Nick Mangold (drafted in 2006), Alan Faneca (2008-2009), Thomas Jones (2007-2009), Darrelle Revis (drafted in 2007), David Harris (drafted in 2007), D’Brickashaw Ferguson (drafted in 2006), Dustin Keller (drafted in 2008), Bart Scott (signed in 2009), Santonio Holmes (signed in 2010), Shonn Greene (drafted in 2010), Antonio Cromartie (signed in 2010), and Braylon Edwards (2009-2010, and 2012). LaDainian Tomlinson also signed in 2010 and left after 2011.
  • Mark Sanchez was the primary starting quarterback in 2009. He lost his job after 2012.
  • The team made two straight AFC title games in 2009 and 2010.
  • Revis, Scott, Greene, and Keller left after 2012. Holmes and Cromartie left after 2013.
  • The team went 6-10 in 2012. The following year, the team went 8-8 in 2013. Due to some of the aforementioned changes, the window basically closed. 2013 was a transition as Geno Smith became the starting quarterback. A new window could have formed if Geno Smith and Rex Ryan had success in 2014 and continued but it did not happen as the team went 4-12.
  • In 2015, the team was 10-6 with Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Darrelle Revis
  • Ferguson left after 2015, Mangold and Harris left after 2016.
• A new window should be starting in 2023. Aaron Rodgers will be the starting quarterback entering 2023. Robert Saleh has been the head coach since 2021.
  • The other key players in the window should include young players such as Sauce Gardner (drafted in 2022), Quinnen Williams (drafted in 2019), CJ Mosley (signed in 2019), Breece Hall (drafted in 2022), Garrett Wilson (drafted in 2022), Alijah Vera-Tucker (drafted in 2021), and DJ Reed (signed in 2022). They will likely need contributions from either or both of pass rushers Will McDonald IV (drafted in 2023) and Jermaine Johnson II (drafted in 2022). They will need contributions from tackle Mehki Becton (drafted in 2020) or some young emerging star at the position in the next few years.
  • If the window does start in 2023, then the issue will be how long does Aaron Rodgers play for the Jets and whether they can get a viable successor to keep the window going for the rest of its duration. It could be argued that the window could have even started as early as in 2022 if the quarterback play, especially from Zach Wilson, had even been mediocre.

Buffalo Bills

• The Bills had a 9-7 team in 2004 but struggled before and after that season to be able to create a window.
• The Bills also had a 9-7 in 2014 but also struggled before that season and were mediocre the following seasons to be able to create a window.

• 2019-2024/2025
  • The team barely made the playoffs in 2017 with Sean McDermott as the head coach. Some of the key players on that 2017 team such as Tyrod Taylor, LeSean McCoy, and Kyle Williams ended up leaving quickly after such as Taylor leaving after 2017 while the latter 2 left after 2018.
  • The following season, Josh Allen was drafted in 2018 and took over as the starting quarterback during the season but the team went 6-10.
  • This is the Josh Allen-Sean McDermott window. It starts with Josh Allen as the primary quarterback.
  • Other key players in this window include Stefon Diggs (signed in 2020), Tre’Davious White (drafted in 2017), Tremaine Edmunds (drafted in 2018), Matt Milano (drafted in 2017), Cole Beasley (signed in 2019), Dion Dawkins (drafted in 2017), Mitch Morse (signed 2019), Jordan Poyer (signed in 2017), and Micah Hyde (signed in 2017).
  • The team has made the playoffs every year in this window. They made an AFC Championship game in 2020.
  • Von Miller was signed in 2022 to bolster this window.
  • Edmunds left after 2022. Beasley left after 2021 but came back late in 2022 before leaving after the season.
  • The team drafted Dalton Kincaid in the 2023 draft in the hopes to add to this window.

Miami Dolphins

• 1997-2003/2004
  • This is the Zach Thomas-Jason Taylor window. Thomas was drafted in 1996 while Taylor was drafted in 1997. The key group included those two along with cornerback Sam Madison (drafted in 1997), safety Brock Marion (drafted in 1998), Patrick Surtain (drafted in 1998), defensive tackle Tim Bowens and center Tim Ruddy (drafted in 1994). Coach Jimmy Johnson was the coach until after 2000 and Dave Wannstedt until the early parts of 2003. Receiver Chris Chambers was drafted in 2001.
  • The team the playoffs in 2000 and 2001.
  • The team missed the playoffs in back to back seasons in 2002 and 2003 but had winning records of 9-7 and 10-6 which meant they were still good teams that were contending. The window could be seen as closing after 2003. However, entering the 2004 season, the team might have been seen as contending until it started and ended badly, thus officially ending the window. Wannstedt got fired early that season.
  • Dan Marino was the primary starter until the end of 1999, Jay Fieldler was the starter until midway through 2004. Fieldler eventually losing his job could also being a sign that the window was closing since they were trying to go in a different direction.
  • Mason and Ruddy left after 2003, Bowens and Surtain left after 2004, and Madison left after 2005 which all contributed to the window officially ending at this period. Thomas, Chambers, and Taylor and Thomas left after 2007.

• 2022-2027/2028
  • We will see about this current window. It looks as though a window is forming but it is likely contingent on Tua’s health and sustainable production as a long term starter and having a viable replacement if he can’t keep the job.
  • Key players include Tyreke Hill (came in 2022), Jaylen Waddle (drafted in 2021), Terron Armstead (at least for the next few seasons), Bradley Chubb (came in 2022), Jaelan Phillips (drafted in 2021), Jalen Ramsey (came in 2023), and Xavien Howard (at least for the next year or a few).  Mike McDaniel became the head coach in 2022. If there is window then it will be the Mike McDaniel window.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers

• 2001-2005/2006
  • This is the second Bill Cowher window. It included key players such as James Farrior (signed in 2002), Alan Faneca (drafted in 1998), Joey Porter (drafted in 1999), Troy Polamalu (drafted in 2003), Hines Ward (drafted in 1998), Jerome Bettis (signed in 1996), Jeff Hartings (signed in 2001), and Casey Hampton (drafted in 2001). The team had primary quarterbacks of Kordell Stewart until after 2001. Tommy Maddox was the primary starter from 2002-2003 and then Ben Roethlisberger took over from 2004 and onward.
  • The team made 3 AFC Championship games in 2001, 2004, and 2005.
  • The team won the Super Bowl in 2005.
  • Bettis left after 2005. Hartings, Porter, and coach Cowher left after 2006. Faneca left after 2007.
  • The team finished 8-8 in 2006. This season could be viewed as a retroactive transition year, although many of these core were on the team but in their last year there.

• 2007-2012
  • This is the first Mike Tomlin window. Ben Roethlisberger continues as the franchise quarterback. This window includes Troy Polamalu, Hines Ward, Casey Hampton, Heath Miller (drafted in 2005), James Harrison, Santonio Holmes (2006-2009), Lawrence Timmons (drafted in 2007), and Maurkice Pouncey (drafted in 2010). Cameron Hayward was drafted in 2011 but mostly became a premiere in the later window.
  • The team won the Super Bowl in 2008 and made it in 2010 but lost
  • The team went 8-8 in 2012 and then 8-8 in 2013. The latter was a transition year as some of the aforementioned players soon left the team such as Hines Ward and James Farrior after 2011 while Casey Hampton and James Harrison left after 2012.

• 2014-2018
  • This is the second Mike Tomlin-the Killer B’s window. The Killer B’s refer to the trio of Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown. Bell and Brown were in their primes during this window. Bell was drafted in 2013 while Brown was drafted in 2010 and started making all-pros in 2013.
  • Other key players included Lawrence Timmons (left after 2016), Maurkice Pouncey, Ryan Shazier (drafted in 2014), Stephon Tuitt, Martavius Bryant (2014-2017), Cameron Hayward, David DeCastro (drafted in 2012), and JuJu Smith-Shuster (drafted in 2017). TJ Watt was also drafted in 2017.
  • The team made an AFC Championship game in 2016.
  • Shazier’s playing career ended in 2017.
  • The Steelers went 9-6-1 in 2018. Le’Veon Bell held out that season and did not play. He and Brown left after 2018. The team went 8-8, albeit Ben Roethlisberger missed almost the whole season.
  • In retrospect, the 2019 could be seen as a transition year due to Bell, Brown, and Shazier leaving beforehand. JuJu Smith-Shuster and James Connor were solid but did not come close to having the impact of Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell.

• 2020-? (either 2022 or as far as 2026)
  • This is potentially a third Mike Tomlin window. Roethlisberger lasted until the end of the 2021 year. This window includes Hayward, TJ Watt, Minka Fitzpatrick (came in 2019), Alex Highsmith (drafted in 2020), Smith-Shuster (left after 2021), Diontae Johnson (drafted in 2019), and George Pickens (drafted in 2022).
  • Pouncey and DeCastro were also part of the group until they left after 2020. Tuitt was as well until after 2021.
  • The team missed the playoffs at 9-8 as Kenny Pickett became the primary quarterback. How the team performs in 2023, how the roster is handled, and how Pickett progresses will determine if the window is still open or not.

Cincinnati Bengals

• One could argue if there was a Carson Palmer-Chad Ochocinco-first Marvin Lewis window that started in 2005 and ended by 2010. The issue is that the team had three seasons of missing the playoffs from 2006-2008 to really call it a realized window.
  • Palmer did miss most of 2008 which led to the team winning 4 games but they were mediocre the prior seasons to begin with. 2010 seemed as though it would be a contending season as the team signed Terrell Owens and Adam Jones. However, it ended with a 4-12 record as Chad Ochocinco and Carson Palmer left afterwards.
  •  Some notable players were Deltha O’Neal (2004-2007), Willie Anderson (1996-2007), Rudi Johnson (2001-2007), Leon Hall (drafted in 2007), Cedric Benson (2008-2011), and TJ Houshmandzadeh (2001-2008).
  • The team made the playoffs in 2005 and 2010.
  • One could even say that if there was to be a window, it would have ended after 2007 since many of the aforementioned players left after 2007. Nonetheless, that timespan and the one winning season would have been too short to call even that a window.

• 2011-2015
  • This is the Andy Dalton-AJ Green-Marvin Lewis window. Marvin Lewis is still the coach. Quarterback Dalton and receiver Green were both drafted in 2011 and started right away.
  • This group also included key players Andrew Whitworth (drafted in 2006), Geno Atkins (drafted in 2010), Vontaze Burfict (drafted 2012), Jermaine Gresham (drafted in 2010), Leon Hall, Adam Jones (came in 2010), Tyler Eifert (came in 2013), Marvin Jones (drafted in 2015), Mohamed Sanu (drafted in 2012), and Ray Maualaga (drafted in 2007).
  • The group made the playoffs 5 straight seasons.
  • Gresham left after 2014. Hall along with receivers Jones and Sanu left after 2015. Whitworth and Maualaga left after 2016. Jones left after 2017.
  • These roster moves, specifically the ones in 2015 and 2016, contributed to the window ending after 2015. The team missed the playoffs in 2016 and continued to miss it until 2021.

• 2021- 2026/2027
  • This is the Joe Burrow-Jamar Chase window as Zac Taylor is the coach. Burrow was drafted in 2020 while Chase was drafted in 2021. Other key players include Tee Higgins (drafted in 2020), Trey Hendrickson (came in 2021), Joe Mixon (drafted in 2017), Logan Wilson (drafted in 2020), DJ Reader (signed in 2020), Mike Hilton (came in 2021), and Tyler Boyd (drafted in 2016).
  • The team made the Super Bowl in 2021. They also made another AFC Championship game in 2022.

Baltimore Ravens

• 1999-2006
  • This is the Brian Billick-first Ray Lewis window. He came in 1999 as the team was 8-8. The key players are Ray Lewis (drafted in 1996), Rod Woodson (1998-2001), Jonathan Ogden (drafted in 1996), Sam Adams (2000-2001), Shannon Sharpe (2000-2001), linebacker Peter Boulware, Tony Siragusa (1997-2001), Todd Heap (drafted in 2001), Adalius Thomas (drafted in 2000), Jamal Lewis (2000-2006), Ed Reed (drafted in 2002), Chris McAlister (drafted in 1999), and Terrell Suggs (drafted in 2003 and won defensive rookie of the year). Bart Scott was drafted in 2002 and had an all-pro 2006 season. Derrick Mason was drafted in 2005.
  • The team had quarterback uncertainty. Trent Difler took over in 2000 in their super bowl season. They had more quarterbacks issue after his departure. Kyle Boller took over in the early 2000s before Steven McNair became the starter in 2006.
  • The team struggled in 2005 with a 6-10 record after a 9-7 2005 season. Even though they technically missed the playoffs two straight seasons, their 2004 season was still 9-7 so it meant they only missed the playoffs due to tiebreakers, not because the team had a very mediocre or poor record. Many of their players were available for their 2006 playoff run.
  • Thomas and Jamal Lewis left after 2006. Boulware left after 2005. The team went 5-11 in 2007. Ogden left after 2007. Brian Billick left after 2007. All of these moves led to the window closing after 2006 as 2007 was basically the window finishing and be a sign of transition/new window having to form. Scott and McAlister left after 2008. Haloti Ngata was drafted in 2006 but became a star by the time the next window started.

• 2008-2012
  • This is Joe Flacco-John Harbaugh (coach)/second Ray Lewis window. The key players aside from Flacco include Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, LaRon McClain (2007-2010), Ray Rice (drafted in 2008), Ngata, Marshall Yanda (drafted in 2007), Vonta Leach (2011-2013), Todd Heap (left after 2010), Derrick Mason (left after 2010), Jimmy Smith (drafted in 2011), Dustin Pitta (drafted in 2010), Benard Pollard (came in 2011), and Anquan Boldin (2010-2012).
  • The team won the Super Bowl in 2012.
  • Lewis, Boldin, Reed, and Pollard left after 2012. Rice left after 2013. Ngata left after 2014. The rapid change in personnel led to this particular window ending as 2013 was a transition year.
  • The 2014 season led to a playoff appearance as Steve Smith (from the Panthers) joined the group. Elvis Dumervill joined the team in 2013 (left after 2016) and CJ Mosley was drafted in 2014 with Gary Kubiak becoming the offensive coordinator in 2014. This could have been a new Flacco-Harbaugh post Lewis/Reed window but it did not become that as the team missed the playoffs for the next 3 seasons (even though they almost made it in 2016 and 2017).

• 2019-2024/2025
  • This is the Lamar Jackson (presumably with Harbaugh still there) window. The team made the playoffs in 2018 but that was with Jackson coming later on in the season with the team not yet being built around his unique skill set which is why it could be argued that the window truly started in 2019. The system (Greg Roman became the offensive coordinator in 2019), personnel, mindset, and expectations were built around him that year with him also becoming less raw as a player.
  • 2018 could be considered a transition year because guys that were part of the mid to late 2010 teams (the period that could have been a post- Ray Lewis/Ed Reed run by Flacco) such as Eric Weddle and CJ Mosley left after 2018. Yanda left after 2019.
  • Another reason for 2018 being a transition year is that many of the future key players for the 2019 to onward window were drafted in 2018 and many vet signings came in 2019.
  • The key players for this window include Orlando Brown (2018-2020), Matthew Judon (2016-2020), Marlin Humphries (drafted in 2017), Mark Andrews (drafted 2018), Marcus Peters (2019-2022), Patrick Ricard (drafted in 2017), Calais Campbell (came in 2020-2022), Mark Ingram (came in 2019, left after 2020), and Ronnie Stanley (came in 2016).
  • JK Dobbins was drafted in 2020. Raquan Smith came midway through 2022 as he is one of their key players. In 2023, the team attempted to bolster this window by also signing receiver Odell Beckham, drafting receiver Zay Flowers, and obtaining a new offensive coordinator with a more pro-style direction in Todd Monken.  The timeline of some of these players matches up with the window probably extending into 2025.

Cleveland Browns

• The Browns had a playoff team in 2002 that went 9-7. They also had a 10 win team that almost made the playoffs in 2007. In both instances, the Browns were bad before that season and were bad for multiple seasons afterward those two winning seasons so no windows were ever formed.

• The Browns were a playoff team in 2020 with a good roster. The team has had two straight disappointing seasons which suggests there isn’t a window from the 2020 run. If the team has a successful 2023 season with Deshaun Watson at QB and continues to be a playoff team afterwards then it will be a true window moving forward from 2023.
  • Other key players, if this is the case, include Nick Chubb (drafted in 2018), Myles Garrett (drafted in 2017), Denzel Ward (drafted in 2018), Joel Bitonio (drafted in 2014), Wyatt Teller (drafted in 2019), Jack Conklin (came in 2020), and Amari Cooper (came in 2022). All of those players outside of Cooper were on the 2020 playoff team. David Njoku was drafted in 2017 and started to emerge in 2022. Right now, Kevin Stefanski is the coach and has been since 2020.
  • If a window starts in 2023 (the Deshaun Watson window) then it will likely go up to probably 2026/2027 at latest due to how many of these core players should have been part of a window as early as 2019 had the quarterback play been good enough from in 2019, 2021, and 2022.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts

• 1999-2001
  • This can be known as the Jim Mora window. He was the head coach until the end of 2001.
  • Peyton Manning was the starting quarterback for this time.
  • The key players include Edgerrin James (drafted in 1999), Marvin Harrison (drafted in 1996), Chad Bratzke (signed in 1999), Cornelius Bennett (signed in 1999), Jeff Saturday (drafted in 1999), and left tackle Tank Glenn (drafted in 1997).
  • Bennett left after 2000. Bratzke left in 2003. James left after 2005. Glenn left after 2006. Harrison left after 2008. Sanders left after 2010.
  • The team made the playoffs in 1999 and 2000.
  • The team went 6-10 in 2001 as Edgerrin James missed most of the season with an injury.
  • Jim Mora Sr. was fired after 2001. He was replaced by Tony Dungy.

• 2003 – 2009/2010
  • This is the Prime Peyton Manning window. Tony Dungy became the coach in 2002.
  • This era can be marked by the emergence of new players in this window such as Mathis, Freeney, Wayne, Clark, Brackett, June, and Sanders.
  • 2002 is a transition year because of new pieces being added or soon to be added in the following season for the team, especially on defense.
  • By 2003, the team improved to 12-4 and made their first AFC title game as a group.
  • The key players here Edgerrin James, Marvin Harrison, Jeff Saturday, Reggie Wayne (drafted in 2001), Tank Glenn, Dwight Freeney (drafted in 2002), Gary Brackett (drafted in 2003), Robert Mathis (draft in 2003), Cato June (drafted in 2003), Bob Sanders (drafted in 2004), Antoine Bethea (drafted in 2006), Joseph Addai (drafted in 2006), and Dallas Clark (drafted in 2003).
  • The team won a Super Bowl in 2006 and made it back to the Super Bowl in 2009 but did not win. They also made an additional AFC Championship game in 2003.
  • Pierre Garcon was drafted in 2008.
  • James left after 2005. Glenn left after 2006. Harrison left after 2008. June left after 2009. Sanders left after 2010. Brackett, Saturday, and Clark left after 2011. Freeney left after 2012.
  • The window extended despite some of the mid 2000s roster changes since Addai replaced James and Wayne replaced Harrison in his role.
  • One could argue 2008 is a transition year since Harrison is on his way out.
  • Tony Dungy retired after 2008 but the group was basically the same as before. Jim Caldwell took over as the coach in 2009.
  • After 2010, Peyton Manning could no longer play for the Colts as he had a major injury in 2011. The season ended up being a disastrous 2-14 run. Some of the key players left around that time as stated already.

• 2012-2015
  • This is the Andrew Luck-Chuck Pagano (coach) window. Andrew Luck became the starting quarterback in 2012.
  • Other key players include Mathis, TY Hilton (drafted in 2012), Vontae Davis (signed in 2012), Mike Adams (signed in 2014), Anthony Costanzo (drafted in 2011), Coby Fleener (drafted in 2012), D’Qwell Jackson (signed in 2014),
  • Wayne and Freeney were still there until after 2012.
  • The team made the AFC Championship game in 2014.
  • Mathis and Adams left in 2014. Jackson and Fleener left after 2016. Davis left after 2017.
  • Luck missed games in 2015 due to injury. The window basically closed as the team didn’t get much better. Luck came back in 2016 as the team went 8-8 for the second straight and missed the playoffs again.

• 2018-2022
  • This is the Frank Reich window. He came in 2018.
  • Andrew Luck returned as the quarterback after a year off due to injury. He soon retired after the season.
  • Jocoby Brissett was the quarterback in 2019. Philip Rivers took over in 2020. Carson Wentz became the quarterback in 2021.
  • Key players include Quenton Nelson (drafted in 2018), Shaquille Leonard (drafted in 2018), Ryan Kelly (drafted 2016), DeForest Buckner (signed in 2020), Kenny Moore (undrafted in 2017), Jonathan Taylor (drafted in 2020), Marlon Mack (drafted in 2017 and was productive from 2018-2019 before leaving after 2021), Michael Pittman Jr. (drafted in 2020).
  • The team made the playoffs in 2018 and 2020.
  • Hilton left after 2021.
  • The team signed Matt Ryan in 2022 in order to take advantage of the window. The team struggled and finished 4-11-1. This officially ended the window. Frank Reich was fired midway through the season.
• The team is expected to be rebuilding with 2023 draft pick Anthony Richardson. If a new window is to be formed in the future, likely at 2024 at earliest, then it will be the coach Shane Steichen-Anthony Richardson window. It will require contributions from Quenton Nelson, DeForest Buckner, Shaquille Leonard, Jonathan Taylor (if he is still on the team), and Michael Pittman Jr. They will also need contributions from 2022 draft pick Alec Pierce along with some of their 2023 draft picks such as cornerback Julius Brentis, tackle Blake Freeland, and more.

Jacksonville Jaguars

• 2004-2008
  • This is the Jack Del Rio window. Key players included Fred Taylor (drafted in 1998), John Henderson (drafted in 2002), Rashean Mathis (drafted in 2003), Maurice Jones-Drew (drafted in 2006), Marcedes Lewis (drafted in 2006), and Marcus Stroud (drafted in 2001).
  • Byron Leftwich was drafted in 2003. He was the primary starter on the team’s 2005 playoff year before David Garrard (drafted in 2002) replaced him mid-way through 2006.
  • The team struggled with mediocre seasons and then poor seasons for many years.
  • They were good in 2017 and made the playoffs. However, the group was only good for one year and good players quickly left so it never became a window.
  • Stroud left after 2007. Taylor left after 2008. Henderson left after 2009. Mathis left after 2012.

• We will see about the current team from 2022 moving forward. If it becomes a window then it will be 2022-2028. If it becomes a window then it will be the coach Doug Pederson-Trevor Lawrence window. They will need players like Christian Kirk (signed in 2022), Evan Engram (signed in 2022), Calvin Ridley (slated to play in 2023), Jaguars’ Josh Allen (drafted in 2020), Brandon Scherff (signed in 2022), Devin Lloyd (drafted in 2022), and Travon Walker (drafted in 2022) to be solidified as key players and build upon the 2022 season. 

Houston Texans

• 2009-2013
  • This is the Matt Schaub-Gary Kubiak (coach) window. Schaub was the primary quarterback for this run.
  • The key players included Andre Johnson (drafted in 2003), Brian Kushing (drafted in 2009), DeMeco Ryans (drafted in 2006), Mario Williams (drafted in 2006), Arian Foster (drafted in 2009 and emerged in 2010), Jonathan Joseph (signed in 2011), Chris Meyers (drafted 2008), Owen Daniels (drafted in 2006), Duane Brown (drafted in 2008), and JJ Watt (drafted in 2011).
  • The team was 9-7 but were tiebreakers away from making the playoffs and starting the run in 2009. After a disappointing 2010 season, the team made the playoffs the next two seasons.
  • The team made the playoff in 2011 and 2012.
  • Williams and Ryans left after 2011. Smith and Daniels left after 2013, Johnson and Meyers left after 2014, Foster left after 2015.
  • The window ended in 2013 as it was a disastrous season that led to the team finishing 2-14. Matt Schaub struggled and got injured. Gary Kubiak was after the season. The team came into 2013 with expectations until things fell apart. All of this along with the aforementioned roster changes around that period led to the window closing when it did.

• 2014-2019
  • This is coach Bill O’Brien-JJ Watt-DeAndre Hopkins window. Watt and Hopkins were in the primes and were key players behind the team having stability, especially before Deshaun Watson arrived. O’Brien came in 2014. Hopkins was drafted in 2013.
  • Other key players included Duane Brown, Jadeveon Clowney (drafted in 2014), Jonathan Joseph, Benardrick McKinney (drafted in 2015).
  • Meyers left after 2014 and Arian Foster left after 2015.
  • Some of the quarterbacks during this time were Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Hoyer, and Brock Osweiller. The team was mostly around 9-7 and made the playoffs half of the time before Watson arrived. Afterward, Deshaun Watson was drafted in 2017 and became the primary starter. His injury in 2017 led to him missing the second half of the season and the team went 4-12. They made the playoffs the next two seasons he was starting.
  • The team signed Laremy Tunsil in 2019 to replace Duane Brown.
  • Brown left after 2017, Clowney left after 2018, and McKinney left after 2020.
  • DeAndre Hopkins and Jonathan Joseph left after 2019. The team tried replacing Hopkins with Brandin Cooks but it did not lead to a similar impact. Will Fuller also did not emerge to take on the role of a number 1 receiver in Hopkins’ absence. The move to trade Hopkins in his prime without a suitable replacement was seen as a move that made the team be viewed as not contenders entering the 2020 since Hopkins was one of the few playmakers on offense during the years. This contributed to the window losing after 2019.
  • The team went 4-12 in 2020. Bill O’Brien got fired very early in the year.
  • Watson ended up wanting a trade and did not play in 2021 before leaving the team afterwards. JJ Watt left after the 2020 season.
• We will see moving forward in upcoming years such as 2024 and onward if any new type of window can be formed with DeMeco Ryans as the coach. If it happens then it will require strong contributions from players such as CJ Stroud (drafted in 2023), Will Anderson (drafted in 2023), Dameon Pierce (drafted in 2022), Jalen Pitre (drafted in 2022), Derek Stingley Jr. (drafted in 2022), John Metchie (drafted in 2022), and likely a few more in the future. Laremy Tunsil (came in 2019) will also be a key player for the next few seasons.

AFC West

Los Angeles Chargers

• 2004-2009/2010
  • This is the LaDainian Tomlinson window as he was the focal point and main constant during this stretch. He was drafted in 2001.
  • Marty Schottenheimer was the head coach until after 2006 and then Norv Turner took over. Drew Brees (drafted in 2001) was the quarterback until after 2005 before Philip Rivers replaced him. Rivers was drafted in 2004.
  • Other key players are Shawn Merriman (drafted in 2005), Marcus McNeil (drafted in 2006), Jamal Williams (drafted in 1998), Lorenzo Neal (2003-2007), Antonio Gates (drafted in 2003), Nick Hardwick (drafted in 2004), Shaun Philips (drafted in 2004), Antonio Cromartie (drafted in 2006), and Kris Dielman (drafted in 2003). Vincent Jackson was drafted in 2005 but he came into his own more in the later portion in the window. Floyd was drafted in 2004 but came into his own in the 2010s.
  • The Chargers made an AFC Championship game in 2007.
  • Tomlinson, Williams and Cromartie left after 2009. Merriman left after 2010. Dielman left after 2011. Even though Tomlinson left, there were still expectations entering 2010 since some of the same roster was still there. Ryan Matthews was drafted in 2010 but didn’t immediately have the same impact.
  • The team was 9-7 in 2010 and then 8-8 in 2011. The 2011-2012 stretch ended up being transition years. Norv Turner was fired after 2012.
• The team made the playoffs in 2013 with Rivers, Ryan Matthew (drafted in 2010), Jackson, Keenan Allen (drafted in 2013), Gates, Eric Weddle (drafted in 2007), Melvin Ingram (drafted in 2012), Malcom Floyd (drafted in 2004), and Shaun Phillips (drafted in 2004). The team was also 9-7 in 2014 but ended up having bad seasons in 2015 and 2016, preventing an actual window from being formed.

• 2021-2026
  • Some of the players in this window were actually around in the late 2010s when Rivers was there. The team was 9-7 in 2017 and then 12-4 in 2018. The team had bad seasons in Rivers’ last year in 2019 and then Herbert’s last year as they went 7-9. Anthony Lynn was the coach from 2017-2020. The bad season prevented a window from being formed.
  • However, some key players from that time that still stayed now are Joey Bosa (drafted in 2016), Keenan Allen, Mike Williams (drafted in 2017), Derwin James (drafted in 2018), Austin Eckler (undrafted in 2017 but became a key player in the later years).
  • Melvin Gordon was a key player during that 2017-2018 stretch before eventually leaving. Melvin Ingram was also important before leaving after 2020.
  • If the Chargers continue to stay contenders for the following seasons, then that would mean that this window starting in 2021 is the first Justin Herbert window. Brandon Staley became the coach in 2021 and we will see how long he stays given some of the criticism he has gotten. If he establishes his job security moving forward then he will be able to share the window title with Herbert.
  • Other Key players in this window include Mike Williams, Joey Bosa, Keenan Allen, Derwin James, Eckler (at least for the 2023 season), Khalil Mack (signed in 2022, will be there for at least until the end of 2023), Rashawn Slater (drafted in 2021), Corey Linsley (signed 2021), Asante Samuel (drafted in 2021). We will see how the players in this window that are in their late 20s (and were around since the mid to late 2010s) will be as they age into their 30s in the next few seasons. It will impact how this potential window lasts.
  • We will see if JC Jackson becomes a key player that his contract suggests he should be (signed in 2022). The same goes for Kenneth Murray (drafted in 2020) as it pertains to his draft positioning (drafted in 2020). Since many of the players in this window were around since the late 2010s, one has to facto that in when determining how long this window will be.

Denver Broncos

• 2002-2006
  • This the second coach Mike Shanahan-Jake Plummer window. Plummer’s time as the starting quarterback syncs up mostly with the duration of the window. Other key players include linebacker Al Wilson (drafted in 1999), and center Tom Nalen (drafted 1994). Major parts of the core included Champ Bailey and John Lynch, both of which came in 2004 to bolster the team. Mike Shanahan was the coach during this time. Clinton Portis was on the team from 2002-2003.
  • The team made an AFC Championship game in 2005.
  • Plummer and Wilson left the team after 2006 and the window ended. Lynch also left in 2007 and Nalen left in 2008.

• 2011-2016
  • This is the Von Miller-Peyton Manning window. Von Miller was drafted in 2011. Peyton Manning signed in 2012.
  • It can be argued that the window started in 2011, a year before Peyton Manning got there, with Tim Tebow (drafted in 2010) as the starter, since it was basically the same roster and they made the playoffs.
  • Manning replaced Tebow after 2011.
  • John Foxx was the coach from 2011-2014. Gary Kubiak took over in 2015.
  • Other key players were Miller, Demaryius Thomas (drafted in 2010), Eric Decker (2010-2013), Ryan Clady (drafted in 2008), TJ Ward (2010-2013), CJ Anderson (came in 2013), DeMarcus Ware (came in 2014), and Aqib Talib (came in 2014).
  • Willis McGahee and Brian Dawkins were there up until 2012 and 2011, respectively.
  • The team won the Super Bowl in 2015.
  • Clady left after 2015.
  • Once Peyton Manning left after 2015, many of these core players were still on the team as the window was still present in 2016 as the team finished at 9-7 with Trevor Siemian. The year after, Gary Kubiak left. The window was basically over as the year after in 2017 was the last year for many guys like Anderson, Ware, Talib, etc. The team went 5-11 in 2017.
• If the Broncos are to form a new window in 2023 and or 2024 it will be the Sean Payton window since he arrived there in 2023. It will require improved play from Russell Wilson (signed in 2022) or a potential successor. It will also require contributions from 2020 draft pick Jerry Jeudy (or another star receiver), Garett Bolles (drafted in 2017), Patrick Surtain Jr. (drafted in 2021), Mike McGlinchley (signed in 2022), Baron Browning (drafted in 2021), Justin Simmons (drafted in 2016), Javonte Williams (drafted in 20210, and probably more players.

Kansas City Chiefs

• 2002-2006
  • This is the Dick Vermeil window. He was the coach at the time. Trent Green was the quarterback in this window. Key players included Brian Waters (signed in 2000), Tony Gonzalez (drafted in 1997), Priest Holmes (signed in 2001), Larry Johnson (drafted in 2003 but became very productive by 2006), and Jerome Woods (drafted in 1996). Derrick Johnson (drafted in 2005) was also there in the later years.
  • The team’s best season in this group was 2003 when they went 13-3 and made the playoffs.
  • Woods left after 2005.
  • Vermeil left after 2005 and Herman Edwards took over as the head coach in 2006.
  • Green left after 2006. Holmes left after 2007. The team went 4-12 in 2007. The window was closed after their playoff season in 2006.

• 2013-2016/2017
  • This is the coach Andy Reid-Alex Smith window. Initially, it was based on the Jamal Charles (drafted in 2008), Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson, Eric Berry (drafted in 2010), and Justin Houston (drafted in 2011) core. Some of them were drafted in the mid to late 2000s while the rest came in the very early 2010s.
  • This team honestly should have had a window start in 2010 when they made the playoffs with Matt Cassell but his poor play in the subsequent two seasons sunk the window. It was revitalized when Andy Reid and Alex Smith arrived but didn’t change that group. Travis Kelce was drafted in 2013 but he didn’t start making pro bowls and all-pros until the mid-2010s. Eric Fisher was also drafted in 2013.
  • The team made the playoffs a lot in this window.
  • Some of the aforementioned guys in the core slowly started to transition out of the tem after 2016, after 2017, and after 2018. Specifically, Charles left after 2016. Johnson and Hali left after 2017. Houston and Berry left after 2018.
  • Marcus Peters was drafted in 2015 and was productive until he left after 2017.
  • Guys from the following core such as Tyreke Hill and Chris Jones were drafted in 2016 and started to make an impact in 2017. Kelce started making pro bowls and all-pros around 2016. Mitchell Schwartz signed with the team in 2016. After the team’s divisional round loss in 2016, they made the decision to draft Mahomes, suggesting they lost faith in Smith and making 2017 a transition year until Mahomes can take over. The aforementioned roster changes played a role in 2017 being a transition year. However, some could still consider 2017 to still be the last year of this mid 2010’s window.

• 2018-2022/maybe 2023 (present)
  • This is the Patrick Mahomes-Andy Reid window that included Hill, Kelce, and Jones. Frank Clark (signed in 2019) was also a key contributor for this window until he left after 2022. Tyron Mathieu was a contributor from 2019-2021 while Watkins was a contributor from 2018-2020. Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher were good players on the offensive until their departures after 2020. In 2021, the offensive line got retooled with the signing of Orlando Brown and Joe Thuney as well as the drafting of Creed Humphrey.
  • The team won the Super Bowl in 2019 and 2022. They also made AFC Championship games in 2018 and 2021 but lost. They made a Super Bowl in 2020 but lost it.
  • The issue with 2022 and 2023 is with whether they are transition years or still part of the window. 2022 was called a rebuild by the players since Hill left but one could argue it was still a window because he was replaced by Juju Smith-Shuester while safety Eric Reid joined, suggesting they are retooling the core rather than transitioning fully out of it since Mahomes, Kelce, and Jones are still there with Reid and some of the offensive line additions from 2021.
  • 2023 could be considered a transition year because they lost their offensive tackle Orlando Brown while replacing him with a cheaper option in Donovan Smith. Juju-Smith Shuester left and they didn’t directly replace him but are hoping for one of their backup receivers and young picks to step up. 
  • They have a lot of draft picks from 2022 and 2023 that they are banking on to be part of the new group or at least add to the current ones. It could still be argued that 2023 is part of the current window since the same core (other than Hill) is still there.
  • We will probably truly know if the team is transitioning into another window or still in their window by the end of 2023.

Las Vegas Raiders

• 1999-2002
  • This is the Jon Gruden window. The window could technically have started in 1999 since many of the core players were there. The key players were Rich Gannon (signed in 1999), Charlie Garner (came in 2001), Darrell Russell (drafted in 1997), Lincoln Kennedy (signed in 1996), Steve Wisniewskie (drafted in 1989), Tim Brown (drafted in 1988), Jerry Rice (signed in 2001), Rod Woodson (signed in 2002), and Charles Woodson (drafted in 1998).
  • Jon Gruden was the coach until the end of the 2001 season and then Bill Callahan took over. Callahan still kept the same offensive system and plays that Gruden left behind while there.
  • Wisniewskie left after 2001. Russell left after 2002. Kennedy, Brown, Garner, and Woodson left after 2003. Rice left after 2004.
  • The window basically ended after the Super Bowl appearance season of 2002 as the whole aforementioned core aged out and or left around that period. The team was 4-12 in 2003 and Callahan got fired afterwards.
• We will see if there is any chance of a window being formed then it will require key contributions from Jimmy Garoppolo (signed in 2023), Davante Adams (signed in 2022), Maxx Crosby (drafted in 2019), Hunter Renfrow (drafted in 2019), 2023 pick Tyree Wilson, Josh Jacobs (if he is still there past 2023), and probably more players. Josh McDaniels became the coach in 2022.

If you want to check out the championship windows for NFC teams, click here.

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