When the Broncos traded two 1st-round picks, two 2nd-round-picks, and one 5th-round-pick to acquire Russell Wilson, they did so with the intent that he would deliver elite QB play to a team that was seemingly “just a QB away”, in the manner of the 2020 Buccaneers, and 2021 Rams.
Well, so far, it has been a disaster, to say the least.
In Wilson’s first year, the Broncos went 5-12. And Wilson was a big reason for this, even if not the sole reason. (Head coach Nathaniel Hackett was generally unprepared, and early in the season had trouble even remembering how much time they had left on their play clock:)
But as we said, Wilson was a big part of the problem. The Broncos’ offense was painful to watch, and had several games scoring under 14 points. They essentially wasted their defense. To put it into perspective: if the Broncos offense had just scored 18 points (which is 2 points below league average, by the way) in every game, they would have been 10-7. In other words, if their offensive output were just not horrible – not even good, just not horrible – they would have been in the playoffs. But they averaged just 16.9 points per game.
A great example came from the Thursday night game against the Colts – a game they lost 12 – 9 in overtime – largely due to terrible late game interceptions Wilson threw at the end of the 4th quarter (which prevented the Broncos from icing the game when up 9-6), and a terrible one he threw at the goalline in overtime.
In addition to his underwhelming play on the field (keep in mind, he was being paid a lot of money – we’ll get back to that later), Wilson’s antics began to wear thin on the team.
On a flight to London to play the Jaguars, Wilson reportedly did high knees up and down the aisle of the airport to stay “loose” for the game. While everyone was sleeping.
What makes matters worse is that in addition to Wilson’s underwhelming play, the Broncos gave him a five-year, $245 million extension before he even stepped on the field for them. They effectively tied themselves down to him for about $100 million over the next two seasons. (The contract guarantees are $165 million, with $124 million fully guaranteed at signing.) Why Denver gave him an immediate extension before seeing the field, no one knows, but they are going to have to live with themselves and justify themselves potentially having a $50 M backup in the event that they bench him. As mentioned before, they finished 5-12.
And as usual with our articles, we typically like to point out the “meta-effect” that players have. In this case, because Russell Wilson struggled last year with Hackett, someone had to be the scapegoat (hint hint: it was Hackett), and as a result, Denver fired Nathaniel Hackett, and then traded another 1st round pick to acquire their new head coach, Sean Payton.
So at this point, many should have realized this wasn’t going to work. Wilson’s play last year was more than just the result of inadequate coaching; it was a product of the fact that defenses in 2022 onwards began to incorporate more Cover 2 looks (defenses where 2 safeties are back instead of 1), which prevents a QB like Wilson from being able to throw deep passes consistently, especially off play-action. Additionally, Wilson, probably due to age, has lost some of his speed and agility. As a result, he has to rely on being a true pocket passer and methodically go through his reads, including throwing to the middle of the field – something he struggles with.
Wilson’s height plays a role in this; he can’t consistently physically see over the offensive line, thus obscuring his vision. This, combined with him being used to getting out of the pocket, has made it difficult for him to be an effective pocket passer. So because of this (and defenses forcing QBs throw shorter), Wilson is having a tough time.
And as we can see so far in 2023, Denver’s offense has… been not as a great as one would hope.
Denver has to rely on scripted plays to help out Russell Wilson to help mitigate these flaws. And, it’s technically working, as their points per game has gone up. But they have largely failed to put together a complete game. They often go long stretches with little to no points, choosing instead to punt, punt, punt, turn it over, punt, and punt again before deciding to score. For example, in the 3rd quarter against Jets in week 5, the Denver offense netted -16 yards on 4 possessions.
In 2023, their defense has been much worse, of course. Yet another example of Wilson not being the only problem. One does not need to go much more in depth with that than to bring up the fact that they gave up 70 points in a game. And that if you take away that game, they’d still be ranked bottom 5 in many defensive stats through the end of week 5. Stuff like this happens when you don’t maximize what you had before. Again, Denver’s defense was so good in 2022 that Wilson just had to lead Denver’s offense to a middling level of play for them to have won a lot more games. Even with Hackett’s flaws, if Wilson performed better, they could have built upon the few positives that team had.
With a new coaching hire, comes a new set of flaws. Sean Payton has produced good offenses in the past, but he has had a prior history of fielding bad defenses with the Saints. And whether or not this Denver defense is bad solely because of Sean Payton’s defensive coordinator hire (Vance Joseph), or because the defense is regressing back down due to them arguably over-performing last season (and losing its luster carrying the offense, and just not believing in the team), Wilson now has to do more on the offensive side of the ball to make up for it (within reason, of course).
What makes this concerning is that in week 6 against the Chiefs this year, their defense played really well and only gave up 19 points. And all Wilson and the Broncos offense could muster is 8. Wilson only passed for 95 yards.
And what makes things even worse is that Wilson’s play is wasting what should have effectively been an early 2020s Super Bowl window for the Denver Broncos. The Broncos up until this year have fielded decent defenses, and have had receivers with some talent and skill, even if none of them are truly elite.
It has gotten so bad that Denver is starting to make tank moves. They have begun taking trade calls for wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, and also linebacker Frank Clark. They already parted ways with Randy Gregory.
This was a team that won 7 games in 2021. They had several young talented players, and had played the Chiefs really well – they lost 22-9 the first time – a game where better QB play would surely have won – and they lost 28-24 on a Saturday afternoon the 2nd game they played. Wilson was supposed to elevate this Denver team, and help them rise to the top.
Instead, his flaws got exposed, and it ended up destroying this window. They’ve gotten worse. They were 5-12 in 2022, and in 2023 it somehow looks like they will be worse.
With better QB play in 2022 – what Denver hoped Wilson would provide – Denver could have been successful, and then make a push to secure some free agents and let this 2023 season be the one to make a surefire push for the Super Bowl. But now, the Broncos’ future looks very bleak.
What can they do? Should they just try to make it work with Wilson to avoid feeling like they wasted money getting him? Should they eat Wilson’s contract, and just tank anyway for Caleb Williams? If they get him, then they’d be carrying Wilson’s albatross contract for at least 2 years, presenting an impediment for their team being able to spend money in Caleb’s early years. If they sit Wilson and trade away many players (and recouping picks in the process), the team is going to have to effectively start over. If they have some few bad drafts, they may very well leave Caleb (or which ever QB they get) with a bad team, with less money to spend than they should.
With the NIL deals in place, will Caleb even declare for the draft if he knows Denver will want to select him? What if Caleb decides Denver is a dysfunctional mess, and decides to stay in USC and collect millions of dollars there? Or leverages it to force Denver to trade the pick?
In short, it’s hard to imagine a trade in recent times worse than the Russell Wilson trade. Most trades for a superstar, at best, end up not helping the team the way they hoped. Think of the 2021 Carson Wentz trade, for example. But it’s rare for a trade like this to leave the team worse than they were before.
Wilson overall has had a really good career, and still could make the hall of fame, but his trade to the Broncos has been a disaster that has the potential to set them back.
