In the NFL, what’s more important?
Most will say offense.
But often times, browse any website on the web , read any comment section, read any discussion on social media, or watch any NFL-related program on TV or listen through radio, and this topic comes up, there will be pushback in some form. Some will highlight defense wins championships. They will point out that most Super Bowl Winners typically have a top 10 scoring defense.
So what’s the answer?
Well let’s find out.
I compiled a dataset featuring every team’s offensive and defensive statistics (yards, points, turnovers), along with their win pct for that season. (The Data comes from the great folks at ProFootballReference.com.)
And I ran queries to find teams with top 10 offenses and bottom 10 defenses, and then teams with bottom 10 offenses and top 10 defenses (using PPG, Yards, EPA), to see how successful each team was (by win percentage). (I am using PPG, Yards, EPA, etc. to make up for imperfections in certain metrics.)
Which matters more, offense or defense? Well we are going to determine that by how much a good offense can carry a bad defense, and how much a good defense can carry a bad offense. This is a convenient way to “isolate” the two variables (as usually the best teams will have both a good offense and defense, so that won’t tell us anything).
Here are the results, over the past couple seasons.
2023
Points
Top Offense/Bad Defense (PPG)
As we can see… 3 teams had a top 10 offense by points and bottom 10 defense by points. And all three had winning records, and 2 of them (the Eagles and Lions) both made the playoffs while the Colts narrowly missed out (they were eliminated from playoff contention in the final week of the season against their division rival Houston Texans). The average win pct. of these teams is 0.627.
Bad Offense/Top Defense (PPG)
2 teams had bottom 10 offenses and top 10 defenses. The Steelers had a winning record and made the playoffs, while the Raiders missed out, finishing 1 game below .500.
Yards
Top Offense/Bad Defense (YPG)
Eagles were the only team by yards in this category.
Bad Offense/Top Defense (YPG)
By yards, these 3 teams had top 10 defenses and bad offenses. And they were mostly dreadful. The Patriots and Panthers were 2 of the bottom 3 teams in the league, while the Jets finished 2 games under .500. The loss of Aaron Rodgers really hurt them this season. (You don’t say…)
EXP
Top Offense/Bad Defense (EXP)
By expected points, we see that these teams with top 10 offenses but bottom 10 defenses were still largely good – 3 of the 4 made the playoffs, and all 4 had winning records. The Seahawks were only eliminated in the final week of the season.
Bad Offense/Top Defense (EXP)
By expected points, 4 teams had bottom 10 offenses and top 10 defenses, and 2 of them made the playoffs (Steelers and Browns).
2022
PPG:
Top Offense/Bad Defense (PPG)
Bad Offense/Top Defense (PPG)
As we can see in 2022, the combo of top 10 offense/bottom 10 defense was more successful than teams with a combo of a top 10 defense and bottom 10 offense. The Top Offense/Bad Defense combo had an average win pct. of 0.60, and 2 of those three teams made the playoffs (with the Lions narrowly missing out and still having a winning record). As where the opposite combo yielded an average win pct. of 0.475 (basically an 8 win team). And all three teams with that combo missed the playoffs. Only 1 was above 500.
Yards
Top Offense/Bad Defense (YPG)
Yards tell a similar story. 2 of the 3 teams made the playoffs, and all had winning records. And that’s with the Vikings and Lions being dead last in yards per game.
Bad Offense/Top Defense (YPG)
Both of these teams missed the playoffs and had losing records. The Jets had a top 5 defense by yards per game.
EXP
Top Offense/Bad Defense (EXP)
Based on expected points, we see both teams with a winning record, and the Vikings making the playoffs.
Bad Offense/Top Defense (EXP)
As we can see… all of these teams missed the playoffs and were middling – all had losing records. And 2 of them had top 5 defenses by EXP.
2021
PPG
Top Offense/Bad Defense (PPG)
Bad Offense/Top Defense (PPG)
Here for PPG, there is a smaller sample size in 2021. This means that from a points perspective, there was probably a stronger association with defense and offense PPG among teams this year (possibly!).
Yards
Top Offense/Bad Defense (YPG)
Bad Offense/Top Defense (YPG)
Using yards per game, we get more typical (and blatant) results. The Top offense/bad defense teams had a 0.58 average (with the Chargers famously only being eliminated on week 18 against the Raiders in a memorable game that went overtime), and the Ravens falling apart after their starting QB Lamar Jackson went down to injury. So when you consider that, it’s pretty impressive.
As where the vice versa teams were clearly inferior. The Saints narrowly missed the playoffs, but the Panthers and Bears were not good all year.
EXP
Top Offense/Bad Defense (EXP)
With expected points, We get the Chiefs and Chargers – both above .500, the Chiefs being the #2 seed and the Chargers just narrowly missing out of the playoffs.
Bad Offense/Top Defense (EXP)
With EXP, these bad offense/top defense teams look better, as both the Dolphins and Saints almost made the playoffs.
Conclusion
So obviously… it’s clear that it is hard to win without a good defense anyways – none of the teams in our 3 year sample won the Super Bowl. So this analysis doesn’t tell us that you can win on offense alone. But it does tell us that if you want to at least be competitive (especially if you’re a team that rebuilding or has limited cap space or young talent), it is better to allocate resources towards your offense first. Get it sorted out.
At the very least, we have some evidence that in contemporary times, it’s more likely that a very good offense can carry a bad defense to the playoffs, or at least a better record, than it is that a very good defense can carry a bad offense to the playoffs.
So if you are a fan – or a GM – reading this article, this should give some insight on who to draft, and which coach to hire going forward – especially when rebuilding or trying to end a playoff drought. Even though having a very good QB has always mattered, now more than ever, it is essential. It is a tall task to ask your defense to carry your team. So it can be said that A) Offense is more important than defense in the modern game, and/or B) You need a good offensive foundation first and foremost.
Look at the Detroit Lions in 2023. They drafted star Tight End Sam LaPorta, running back Jahmyr Gibbs, WR Jameson Williams, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Tackle Penei Sewell. Literally almost all their best players are all offensive-players that they drafted in within the last 2-3 seasons, and some of them are rookies as of the 2023 season. They finished the year 12-5 as the #3 seed and won the division for the first time in over 30 years.
So again, if you’re a fan, team, GM, etc. offense is going to give you a better floor/ceiling than defense. Spend on offense. Draft on offense. It’s more important. It doesn’t mean that defense isn’t important, however. But it’s best to start with offense.
What do you think? PLEASE COMMENT BELOW!
