Many QBs seem like the victim of bad situations. Then they move to greener pastures. Then they excel! But don’t win in the playoffs, and eventually, it fizzles out.
The reality is that a lot of these QBs are who they are. Yes, a good coach or team around them can elevate their numbers and wins, and a bad situation can do the same conversely. We all know that coaching and supporting cast matters. But the reality is that overall, a situation isn’t what usually makes or break how great or how bad a QB truly is – it doesn’t turn a QB from bust to hall of famer. They still are the same guy – for instance, an average guy, who may fluctuate between above average and below average depending on their team, , and still eventually averages out to being average, solid, at best.
Or for example, a bad QB with a good team usually still wouldn’t look that good – they would at best look average, and, underachieve with a good team, and borderline stinks with a bad team.
Or a great QB, who, when their team is even just good, they are super bowl favorites, and when their team is not good, they still usually win at least 7-9 games a season. The team’s rebuilding years still have them in the playoff race. Guys like Brady, Peyton, Rodgers, etc. will have their teams still win 7-10 games in years where their rosters are in transition years, and aren’t very good. As where an average guy will be struggling to win 7-9 games those years. And when great QBs have great teams or great weapons – they have record-breaking seasons. Average QBs with great weapons merely have good or very good seasons. Think 2021 Dak Prescott, 2020 Baker Mayfield, etc.
A perfect example of this can be found with Derek Carr. People often have defended him for years claiming that he was a product of bad defenses and that the organization failed him, and that he is a good QB who would have found success elsewhere. Have the Raiders been dysfunctional? Yes, certainly. Is Carr solid? Yes. But he still has flaws that would hurt him in a better situation. This past NFL 2022 season proved the critics right. Yes, Carr had bad defenses. This doesn’t mean that you couldn’t still tell he wasn’t that great.
At the end of the day, the 2022 Christmas Eve game against the Steelers showed that he is who he is, and that even a great defensive performance and really great weapons isn’t enough to save him. At the end of the day, he still makes wrong reads, doesn’t find the open guy enough, and he can quite frankly be inaccurate – especially in bad weather. In fact, Carr’s record when his defense gives up under 20 points is 18-12 – good for a win percentage of 60. For comparison, Brady and Peyton have win percentages of 95% and 96%, respectively.
