I’m going to list some contemporary all-time great players who have won rings, and I want you to figure out what they all have in common.
Michael Jordan. Isaiah Thomas. Hakeem Olajuwon. Shaquille O’Neal. Dirk Nowitzki. Lebron James. Steph Curry. Kevin Durant. Giannis Antetokounmpo. Jimmy Butler/Nikola Jokic.
What do they have in common? A lot of them did not win their rings early in their careers.
Almost all of them all won their first championships between 27-29 years of age. Dirk Nowitzki won at 31!
Now, this article isn’t going to be a thought experiment as to why. It’s mostly meant to highlight this trend. Most superstar players in contemporary NBA history (the last 30 years) have only won their first titles in their late 20s – not early in their careers like many legends in the past (Magic, Bird, Kareem, Russell, Walton, Barry, etc.)
We don’t know why it’s happened. We can’t say it’s the 3-pt line introduction, because that was introduced in the early 80s, and Magic and Bird won rings very early in their careers (early 20s). We can’t say it’s a college-high school thing either.
The only notable recent exception to these rules are Kobe Bryant, Dwayne Wade, and Tim Duncan, who were about 23±1 years of age when they won their first rings; however, Bryant, Wade, and Duncan both had veteran superstar players (Shaq and David Robinson respectively) alongside them if that counts for something.
Again, it’s hard to drill down why it’s the case. During the first 35 years of the league’s existence, it was a little more common for guys to win their first rings pretty early. George Mikan led a dynasty in his mid-20s. Bill Russell and several others on the the Celtics dynasty pretty much won immediately. In the era of parity in the 70s, for every player who had to wait longer like Wes Unseld and Rick Barry, players like Bill Walton, Dennis Johnson/Jack Sikma, were winning within their first 3-4 years.
What could cause this? Is the talent level great enough that it’s hard for a rookie with only a few years of experience to immediately come in and be the best player in the league? (If you’re going to win a championship in the NBA as a number #1 option, you kind of have to be one of a top-tier best players in the world.)
Are the previous winners able to play at a high enough level longer, that they can block off young teams from winning? Is the prevalence of superteams playing a role?
For whatever reason, it’s a trend that is growing stronger.
