The Patriots Future with Bill Belichick is bleak

This is a very bold claim, but it will be true.

The truth is, the Patriots won’t get back to being a serious title-contender any time soon. And sadly, Bill Belichick may be the reason why.

Here are the reasons why:

Belichick Prefers Not to Spend Top Dollar for Elite Talent

The Patriots having more cap room over the next couple of years means nothing. Why? Because Belichick is known for not wanting to spend large sums of money in free agency if he doesn’t have to.

The 2021 Free Agency spending spree saw Patriots spend lots of money in free agency for the first time in a while – but they did not use this money to make a run for elite, high-end talent. They instead spent this money on getting a large number of depth players, such as Nelson Agholor, Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, Kendrick Bourne, and more. Belichick prefers to spend on more “mid-level” talent not only because they are cheaper, but because they may not have to reorient their offense around them – they can plug in and play. Bill prefers to get players that fit his way of doing things, than to have to yield to a superstar player. So people should not be surprised at them only signing JuJu Smith-Schuster this offseason instead of trying to make a run for someone else. They must have forgotten that doing that would run contrary to Belichick’s philosophies on team-building, and football as a whole. This is devastating for a QB like Mac Jones. QBs like Brady could make it work with Hunter Henry, Kendrick Bourne, and the rest of them, but a QB like Mac is a guy who is going to really need an elite QB to shine.

Belichick views himself along the lines of Tom Landry and Paul Brown. The “system” is more important than the player. “Belichick can win with anyone” is a long-tenured adage that stuck for a reason: Belichick frequently gets lower cost players and diamonds in the rough that can be productive in the Patriots. Players like Wes Welker, to guys like Damian Byrd are examples of this. Belichick doesn’t believe in paying top-dollar for a player in his prime. He believes that teams that pay receivers large sums of money are stupid, and is known for always letting a player go early than late if he would have to pay them. This has been seen countless times (Amendola, even Brady).

This has mostly worked out well for Belichick, given his rings and all. But this won’t work long term. We really take for granted how Brady’s willingness to take “less” money (even if for pragmatic reasons), along with with his consistency and leadership allowed Belichick to avoid having dump much of the cap in his salary. It allowed Belichick to avoid QB contract drama, to pay other players, and to allow his strict coaching style to work. Another QB who wanted a market-breaking contract, likely would have advocated for themselves to not put up with Belichick’s coaching style much earlier than Brady did. And who knows how that would have turned out.

As recent as 2023… Bill did not want to pay $26 for 2 years to acquire DeAndre Hopkins. Keep in mind… they paid similar amounts for Devonte Parker and Jonnu Smith… and Parker himself has not been very healthy.

Belichick’s Coaching Style Has Alienated Players…

We’ve seen several former players discuss their dislike of the Patriots environment. To put it simply… it’s not “fun” – and before you think this sounds petty, this matters, because if the team isn’t good, and won’t offer you top dollar… why would you work in an environment that is a drag, if you aren’t getting paid well, and your organization isn’t even successful (which allows you to feel apart of something special)?

Danny Amendola has spoken about his time there… saying Bill is an asshole.

He did, to be fair, imply that it was ultimately good since it helped them win. But the questions is: would a free agent player put up with that if the team wasn’t already good?

It also doesn’t help that Danny Amendola has also attributed the Patriot Way to Tom Brady himself.

Former CB Asante Samuel has made his dislike of the Pats known very well since his retirement… in one of his many tweets on the matter, he was warning Lamar Jackson to NOT play for the Patriots.

Even former player Darelle Revis has said that he did not enjoy his time with the Patriots, despite winning there. He said there might be other ways.

Keep in mind… these are all players who have won titles with the Patriots, and are good players. So they aren’t castoff randoms. Revis is going to be a hall of famer. And yet, they all still have a thing or two to say about Belichick. This is significant, because you have to wonder how this would work if the team wasn’t playing well…

… Actually you won’t really have to wonder. We’ve seen current players speak out against what Bill and the coaching staff are doing. Kendrick Bourne made his frustrations known about the state of the offense during the 2022 off-season. Even players in Belichick’s Cleveland days found Bill to be unlikeable, and accused him of treating players like “faceless cogs”, and being unable to relate to players.

Which brings up another point…

Belichick Doesn’t Always Bring In Young, Proven Coordinators

This is related to the point above. Matt Patricia does not need any explanation… but beyond that even, Belichick has never been one to get a modern OC for his team’s offense, preferring to still stick with familiar faces and, arguably, yes-men.

Belichick’s Offensive Coaching, and Coaching Staff Decisions

For all the acclaim Belichick gets as a defensive mind, his offensive strengths are quite lacking in comparison. In short, Belichick is not foreign to QB controversies, and having inadequate coaching staffs.

We obviously saw this in 2022 with the hirings of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge as de facto OC and QB coach, and with Belichick’s handling of Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe.

Belichick benching Mac Jones after a rough 1st quarter (in his first game back after being injured for 3 weeks) did not go over well with players in the locker room. They felt Bill left Mac out to dry. Jakobi Meyers – one of the receivers – ended up commending Mac for how he handled the situation, actually.

Believe it or not, when Belichick was in Cleveland, he did something similar.

Belichick waived long term starter Bernie Kosar while incumbent Vinny Testeverde was injured with a separated shoulder. Kosar was struggling to be fair – but in Kosar’s defense, much of these struggles were of the result of questionable playcalling; many of the plays were bootleg play action passes – a poor fit for Bernie Kosar, who did not have great mobility at this point – with very few vertical passing plays called. Kosar himself hinted that the playcalling system were not a good fit for him.

And guess what? Belichick himself – a defensive minded head coach – was the one calling the plays. The Browns had no formal named offensive coordinator. And Belichick often limited Kosar’s ability to make audibles at the line of scrimmage.

So let’s recap this.

A defensive coach taking over the offense.

No formal OC.

Limited ability for the QB to change plays.

Shoddy playcalling with limited vertical passing, and that doesn’t fit the QB’s strengths.

Does that ring a bell?

The Cleveland Browns 93 season would end with Testerverde getting hurt, and Bernie Kosar getting cut – Belichick started Todd Philcox the rest of the way out.

Belichick Values Stockpiling Picks and Undrafted Free Agents Over High Picks

This is no secret that Belichick doesn’t really care for high picks. Although he has rarely had a chance to pick high since the team has been so good for so long, he has rarely attempted to trade up within the first round to get a higher pick. Instead, he often does the opposite. Belichick often prefers to trade down as he believes accumulation of lower picks with more than a single high pick.

Additionally, Belichick has often released free agents that he knows will yield a compensatory pick. And loves to sign undrafted free agents. Belichick is one who loves to stockpile many picks, because he knows that the sheer sample size will yield at least a few good players. (Look at Julian Edelman and Malcom Butler for instance). It makes sense, as many high picks bust. But it is also not always great to do this, as it means that you limiting your chances to get high-end, foundational talent. It is part of why the Patriots rosters have often had a lot of “JAGs” (just-another-guy a.k.a replaceable players). As mentioned before, Belichick likes these JAGs, as they will fit what he does, and won’t have large ego or demand money (or get disproportionate credit for the team’s success). But those JAGs stick out when you don’t have an elite QB to make up for it. Looking at other teams like Tampa, who have had the opposite issue: their drafts yielded players like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin (all within the first 3 rounds, Evans being a top 10 pick), and they just needed a QB. Brady then became that QB.

Belichick’s Draft Struggles

Over the past decade, Belichick has often selected players using rather… questionable metrics. One example of this is based on what his coach friends have said about their personalities. An example of this can be found with the N’Keal Harry draft pick. According to Albert Breer’s article on Sports Illustrated, Belichick is close with Harry’s college coach, and Harry nailed the “in-house visit”, which all signs point to not being a full-fledged workout but rather a get together. And Harry’s personality seemed to have won him over to Belichick rather than his play.

Nick Saban – who Belichick was close with and was actually a former assistant of his – recommended Anfernee Jennings at linebacker, because he was his “favorite player”. And as you can imagine, both Anfernee Jennings and N’Keal have not looked so impressive thus far. More tidbits can be found in the article, and they essentially point to a picture that shows that Belichick is often just not listening to his scouts. Some of his picks are for very specific roles (literally based on the schedule for the year), and thus may outlive their usefulness. But perhaps most importantly, Belichick’s drafting philosophy seems designed to just reaffirm his views on the game of football: As said before, Belichick views players as being more like expendable chess pieces; he thinks that certain schemes – like a 3-4 Hybrid, and a EP offense that features catch-passing running backs and option-routes – are the best way to go, and he also pays a lot of attention to special teams (which is SMART – it kept the Patriots in a lot of games in 2020 that they shouldn’t have been in, like with their win against the Cardinals). But what comes along with this “expendable player” view is that he is going to be very guarded around the idea of drafting first-round talent. Since everyone is interchangeable and he can find value throughout the draft, he is not going to prioritize those high picks that could be game-changers. It’s also why he tends to not draft well at receiver. And this philosophy may in part also be way he was willing to justify coming into last season with Matt Patricia and Joe Judge as his primary offensive coaches.

And it’s easy to say that it doesn’t matter since he has won so much. But what he has done will be hard to replicate since he won’t have Brady to steer the ship at QB. Years such as 2006 and 2013 and even 2018 saw Brady still carry the offense with limited skill position talent. It will be hard to imagine that such events will occur again without him.

The Patriots’ Defenses – and the team as a whole – Over the Past Decade Have Still Primarily Relied on Brady’s Consistency and Clutch-Play

For proof, look no further than how the Patriots were in the 2020 season. Games like Week 6 against the 49ers, Week 14 against the Rams, Week 15 against Dolphins, Week 16 against the Bills were games where the Patriots’ defense started off each game well, but their offensive ineptitude put too much pressure on their defense to where they could no longer hold up, and eventually got blown out. Or even in the 2021 season, where games against the Cowboys could have been put away earlier (with Dak’s redzone interceptions) if their offense had taken advantage and got off to a bigger lead, and games against Dolphins, Colts, and more saw their defense tire down. Lastly, in 2022, the Pats defense could not hold up against the Ravens and Bills. In the Thursday night against the Bills that year, their defense started off really well, but we saw what happened in the 2nd half.

Why is this the case?

Over the past 10 seasons, ever since the defense of the original Patriots dynasty (such as Tedi Bruschi, Willie McGinnest, Ted Johnson, Richard Seymour, Rodney Harrison, etc.) retired, Belichick has seemed to utilize more of a “bend-don’t break” style of defense. If you watched many of the regular season games that the Patriots have played from 2010 onwards, with the exception of the 2019 season, you would notice that in a lot of their games (NOT ALL), their opponents wouldn’t have much trouble moving up and down the field (as is typical with bend-don’t break defenses). However, due to them running so many plays, they would often eventually screw up in someway (an interception, fumble, or incomplete pass). Then Brady and the Pats offense would score a touchdown, and this would put pressure on the other team – thus forcing them to change their gameplan a bit to keep up (which may make them more predictable).

A great example of this comes from the 2017 NFL season. The Patriots defense was ranked in the bottom 10 in many categories such as yardage, yards per offensive play, takeways, and DVOA etc. but were somehow top 10 in scoring. That type of statistical contradiction is often the result of a team whose offense has often put up high numbers and points, allowing the defense to better coast (as the other team is forced to pass, and give up field goals in exchange for going for it).

This isn’t to say that the Patriots have never had truly great defenses. Of course they have. The 2003 Pats defense was one of the best ever. But the point is that contrary to belief, and popular perception, the Patriots defenses for the past 10 years have looked better on paper than they really were, and have been very up and down.

Even in the 2022 season, the Patriots had several games where Brady making routine throws (think the Thursday night game against Buffalo, the Raiders game, etc.) or his ability to keep up with and be clutch against elite QBs (Lamar, Burrow, Allen, etc.) would have won them those games, and allow them to win their usual 12-13 games a year. In short, they can’t really shut down or stop anyone good with enough consistency. And now that their offense isn’t as prolific as it was, these games have become predictable losses.

To put it into perspective with a simple stat:

In the post-Brady era, the Patriots are 5-25 (16.67%) when their defense gives up over 20 points.

In 2020, the Pats were 2-10 when their defense gave up 20+ points. (Tanking Jets team, and Raiders.)

In 2021, the Pats were 2-5 when their defense gave up 20+ points. (Texans and Chargers, to their credit.)

In 2022, the Patriots were 1-10 in games where their defense gives up over 20 points. (Dolphins without Tua)

Belichick’s Flaws May No Longer Be Masked (The Brady Effect)

This is perhaps the most important part of the article. The drafts, team-building philosophy, locker room culture, unwillingness to spend, coaching staff decisions, and overall egoistic influence have all been nullified due to Brady.

Tom Brady’s time in New England saw him accomplish many great things on the field. But off the field is where Brady’s greatness has always shined most, arguably.

Brady putting up with Bill’s coaching style and personality is arguably the most important attribute that Brady bought to the Patriots. This is not to say that Belichick’s coaching style is inherently bad or that he is a wholly unlikeable person (after all, several players who criticized Bill on his team-building and contact negotiating still liked him as a person), but Belichick has no problem chewing out star players in front of everyone, benching important starters for acting out, and adopts a “no days off” mantra that can alienate veterans who feel that they have earned more liberties and respect. Belichick does have players he speaks positively off, and many have half-jokingly noticed that Belichick has been much more affectionate towards Cam than he was towards Brady, so this implies that Belichick’s mannerisms and overall style aren’t consistently applied to every player the same way. This is something that would have caused other quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger (“divas”, if you will) to leave way earlier than Brady did, or, on the flip side, cause them to complain to Kraft about Belichick and potentially get him fired (as Rodgers did with McCarthy). Big Ben even asked for a buffer between him and Todd Haley when he was the OC, creating drama and distractions within the locker room. For as much adoration as Bill gets for not allowing distractions in the locker room, Brady doesn’t get enough for not making any distractions, and for being the consummate leader and role model in the locker room at allows others to fall in line and put up with Bill.

Brady not demanding top dollar too much allowed Bill to not have to worry about the cap being bloated as much as other teams. Many teams find themselves in cap hell more often due to their QB taking up a large portion of the salary. Teams like the 2021 Steelers and 2021 Saints had to restructure their QB deals in order to clear cap and minimize the amount of dead cap. This is also put much more pressure on those teams to draft well around their QBs, as it would be harder to build around them. Although Brady was at one point the highest paid QB, it was brief, and this flexibility often allowed the Patriots to have more freedom and less risk with building their roster. Many players like Revis and Browner could come aboard for quick short-term contracts because a) their was more cap, and b) they were playing with Tom Brady. Proof? Look at what happened to Tampa ever since Brady went down there. Brady (who is only being paid $25M-$30M) is attracting free agents, even if on short term rentals, allowing Tampa to have more flexibility and more margin for error. Will that happen? Will an elite receiver come to the Pats, take a paycut, and put up with the coaching style, to play with this team nowadays?

That isn’t to say that Brady is some angel taking less money because of his heart: it’s obviously pragmatic (and his ex-wife is rich). But it is still a luxury that Belichick had.

Brady’s overall consistency and quality of play allowed Belichick and the Pats to still contend even during transitional years, and to get away with some questionable coaching decisions. The reality is, throughout the past 2 decades, the Patriots have had multiple seasons where they have entered the year without having a truly great roster. In some years it was barely Super Bowl caliber. A lot of this is because of Belichick’s aforementioned drafting, preferences on free agency, and overall team-building style. Yet despite that, they made deep playoff runs in many of those years regardless, and were a Super Bowl favorite. And a huge portion of that is because of Tom Brady. And what better year is there to use as an example than the 2006 NFL season?

In 2006, the Patriots decided not to resign Deion Branch – one of Brady’s most trusted receivers – and in the draft, Belichick spent, and whiffed badly on each of his skill position picks that were drafted in the first 4 rounds. Running back Laurence Maroney was a bust, Receiver Chad Jackson was a bust, and Tight End David Thomas played a combined 13 games over his three seasons with the Patriots while 4th round pick Garret Mills didn’t even make the final roster that same season. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski was a great pick, and was very productive for the Patriots, but he was the only bright spot in that draft. Now, please don’t miss the point here: the point isn’t that Belichick is bad at drafting or that the Patriots can’t be afforded a bad draft. The point is that despite how lackluster that offseason was, the Patriots still went 12-4 and made the AFC championship in a game where if they had just caught a few passes could have won and made the Super Bowl. (This is one of those moments where the drops were crucial: In mid-4th Qtr, the score tied 28-28, Reche Caldwell dropped a wide open pass on 1st & 15 that at worst would have set up an easier 2nd and 3rd down and at best could have gone for a touchdown. Then two plays later fails to hall in a 1 on 1 pass that hit him in the hands and could have been a TD. The Pats ended up kicking only a field goal on that drive.)

And obviously, Belichick still played a role in their success. And the defense did too. They ranked high in many categories. But the offense was barren that year, with their position players being Ben Watson, and an older Troy Brown and Corey Dillion. Dillion retired that offseason (after splitting carries), and Troy Brown retired the year afterwards following a multi-year trend decreasing snaps at receiver. Belichick’s team-building strategy, below-average draft, and overall philosophy led to a Pats roster that in all honesty, would have been an 7-8 win team with most QBs, even decent ones, if it wasn’t for Brady that year. Tom Brady, despite the weak supporting cast, was still top 10 in passer rating, top 10 in yards, and top 5 in touchdowns. Similar seasons like that have occurred with the Patriots, such as 2013 and 2019. And we saw how the offense had a huge drop off from 2019 -> 2020 despite actually having a slightly better supporting cast.

This isn’t a flaw, so much as it is an example of Tom’s transcendent qualities. Tom Brady’s football IQ and preparation allowed Bill to not have to micro-manage the offense the way guys like Shanahan and McVay do.

This is footage from “A Football life” that shows Tom Brady giving suggestions and insight to Bill about how to prepare against the Ravens. Brady being able to understand dissect defenses allowed Bill to put more effort on the defensive side of the ball. It’s to a point where the 2009 Patriots (which the video above is based in) did not even have an official offensive coordinator. Despite that, Tom Brady was still top 10 in almost every meaningful passing category – and that was with him playing in his first year back from his ACL tear.

Many QBs are transcendent because of they play-extending, their rocket arms, and more, but Brady’s pre-game planning and preparation and on-field processing maybe his most transcendent quality.

Even good QBs with good teams and good coaches struggle. Look at how many good teams Phillip Rivers and the Chargers squandered. Brady, for all the digs he gets for supposedly “always having good defenses”, is one of only 5 QBs in NFL history to win multiple Super Bowls without a top 5 scoring defense.

The truth is, Bill Belichick, and the New England Patriots by extension, were very lucky to have Tom Brady play QB for them for 20 years. For much of the Patriots history, they weren’t much better than the average team. They were the “little engine that could” – after years of struggle, they would eventually have a good playoff run where they’d break your heart and lose to a better team in the end. Highs and lows, like many teams. Even as Kraft and Parcells brought the team a foundation, they quickly slid again until Brady stepped on the field in 2001.

In short, Belichick, for all his positive attributes, has many major flaws that he has been able to avoid costing him due to having Brady at the helm. These flaws (being cheap, his coaching style, his coaching staff decisions, “avoiding” elite talent, etc.) were actually positives when Brady was with him, but without Brady, they will (and have) rear their ugly heads (as we saw in 2020). And Belichick’s flaws are integral to who he is as a coach. Why would Belichick – who thinks most players are expendable, who thinks it is not worth trading up for a draft pick since there is value throughout the draft, who thinks most players aren’t worth top dollar, who thinks there is a right “scheme” and “system” to play the game, and who thinks players are so expendable that he can bench starters in key games, suddenly change his ways? He won’t. Why would he suddenly be aggressive and trade up to draft a star skill-position player in the first round or make a blockbuster trade for a QB in their prime that costs at least $40 million? Why would he sign multiple big name free agent receivers? That is not who he is, and to do such a thing, would not only be “admitting defeat” and exposing that his football philosophy is unsustainable, but it would be an affront to his entire ethos.

For those reasons, the consequence is that the Patriots – unless they luck into another Tom Brady-like steal – won’t get back to the Super Bowl, and may not ever become a serious Super Bowl contender until Belichick leaves. At best, they’ll be an early playoff exit, and at worst, a 6 win team depending on their schedule.