I love basketball. I love the NBA in particular. I’ve been watching since I was 6. I have been playing since I was 9. I love to write about it. Watch highlights. Play NBA 2K. Everything.
But you can’t deny that it has problems. The league is in an odd place. Teams are tanking left and right. Historically, there have always been only a small handful of teams that have had a realistic shot at winning the Finals (meaning that this Warriors dominance is more of a return to the norm). The league has devolved into three-point shooting contests. Majority of the playoffs are useless sometimes. Especially the first round, most of the time. The regular season also drags. Superstars are too integral, and teams and coaching rarely matter. Oh yeah, and unless you are a lock to go to the Finals, you’re better of tanking. Because regular, solid teams with good coaching rarely win.
The issue is that most of these issues are integral to the sport of basketball itself. The sport features only 5 players a team, so naturally, each individual player – and their talents – are much more valuable and important compared to a sport like American Football, where the large number of players limits each individuals’ impact just enough so that coaching can matter. Drawing up a gameplan against prime Shaq didn’t work. He won 3x straight championships!
Compare this to the NFL. Where teams don’t have to tank. Upsets in the playoffs are expected. Even teams that are bad, still have hope. Look at the Cleveland Browns. They were 0-16 last year, now they are 7-9. I’m not trying to argue that the NFL is some bastion of parity – because lets be real, there’s a reason why you don’t see footage of most teams during the 70s outside of like 6 or so (Dolphins, Cowboys, Steelers, Redskins, Raiders); most teams were trash that had no shot. Heck, even the last 16 years, 3 QBs have been in all the AFC title games (Peyton, Roethlisberger, and Brady). But a lot of those years other teams like the Jets and the Chargers and the Chiefs have all had their chances – they just choked, which has nothing to do with parity. The NFC does have parity.
You have teams who barely get into the playoffs winning the Super Bowl or at least making it (The NY Giants 2x, the 2008 Cardinals), and you have teams who can miss the playoffs one year, and bounce back and become a powerhouse team next (teams like the Panthers, Rams, Vikings, etc.). Basically, it’s not automatic; you don’t go into the NFL season automatically knowing the Super Bowl winner and getting it right 3 years in a row like you could with the Warriors. That alone is a huge difference. With so few players, each one – and their individual talents – become so integral and important and impactful, hence why individual talents are so transcendent.
In the NBA, there isn’t even an illusion of parity. I’ll admit, there was some parity between 2010 and 2016 – where there were a solid 2-4 teams in each conference that had a chance of winning the Finals. But outside of that? You have to go back to the watered down 1970s. Outside of that, there has usually been 1-2 teams that have monopolized the title. 1946-1955? Lakers won like 4-5 titles. The next 13 years? Celtics got 11. The 80s? Celtics and Lakers combine for 8. 90’s? Bulls win 6, Rockets get 2. 1999-2010? Lakers Spurs combine for 9. 2014 till now? We got four straight finals between the Warriors and Cavaliers.
Naturally, this is why the first few rounds of the playoffs, save for a few years here and there are usually so meaningless. Because most of the time, you already know the lower seed team will lose, unless there’s a major injury. The fact that the playoffs are played in series makes this issue worse, simply due to the law of large numbers; the more games played, the closer to the expected result you get. The reason why the NFL feels more open is because only one game is played, so any fluke thing can happen; a good coaching performance, a major injury, or just one team choking. But the more games you play, the more likely you are to get the “real” result of these two teams, since those flukes won’t happen that often.
And even more importantly, this is why teams tank. There’s zero point in doing what teams like the Memphis Grizzlies or Washington Wizards have been doing the past 5-7 years. Those teams lacked a top 10 player, so there was virtually no chance in them even reaching the finals, let alone winning it. They could barely even make a conference final. These teams are “treadmill teams”.
And when you have teams like that that you know aren’t gonna do anything, watching them during the regular season is pointless. That’s part of why the regular season ratings and attendance are always prone to decline. As this year is showing, last season was an anomaly – mostly due to the great draft class + the NFL’s troubles. Now that that is over, the NBA has no real reason to see its ratings remain high. Also not to mention, the NBA has a lot of possessions and scoring, so each individual point matters less. Combine that with an 82 game schedule, and you get a product that offers little incentive to tune into consistently.
And that’s also why teams – and fans of teams – like tanking. It’s more certain path than being a treadmill team. At least you have a chance to get a top 5 player in the draft (even if it is not too likely), and you get to watch young players develop and see if they have anything with them. There’s a future there, vs watching your constant 7th or 8th seed team with zero top 15 players and no free agents lose in the first round all the time. Look at the Knicks. If their asses just tanked these last 5 years instead of wasting time with Carmelo and then a bunch of D-listers, they’d be where the 76ers right now – a Finals contender. Obviously tanking doesn’t always work, but it’s more interesting and hopeful than being an 8th seed every year.
And that’s also indicative of another problem; much of what people complain about in regards to the NBA, has to be that way, because we wouldn’t watch it otherwise.
Imagine if in 2020, the NBA had a 20 game – one game per week – schedule, with single-game elimination playoffs. Imagine if in the first round, the Warriors played lax and didn’t take the Clippers, or so, seriously and lost. And then in the east, Kawhi goes down with injury, the Hornets catch the Bucks on a bad night, and the Bucks are eliminated.
Then we get a Hornets vs Clippers final. Would you honestly watch that?
No, you wouldn’t. And that’s the issue that the NBA has. All its flaws kinda have to be there. In that scenario above, the stats would also be different too. Not as much crazy records broken in a shortened season.
And that’s the issue. That’s the issue. NBA has a set of issues that are inevitable. They cannot fix any of it.
