In these last few seasons, we’re starting to see teams receive good value from picks outside the top 5, let alone top 10. For many years in the modern NBA era, it was not common to find even a decent starter when picking in the teens. That’s why tanking has become so prevalent. A team knows that if they want even the slimmest chance of drafting and developing a franchise star player, they would have to acquire a lottery pick. Even with things changing these last couple of years, everyone knows it’s still your best bet.
Some will point to the few first round picks in the teens and twenties that have had success as descent or excellent players such as Klay Thompson. Heck, some will point to some notable second round picks such as Draymond Green, younger Isaiah Thomas, Kyle Korver, Paul Millsap, DeAndre Jordan, Manu Ginobili, and more. While those are nice players, it has been rather uncommon to get those levels of success outside of the top 10, let alone top 5.
However, in recent years we’ve seen young stars emerging out of the top 5. Obviously, the jury is still out on how the rest of their careers will go but the promising starts are still worth pointing out for this discussion. In 2016, we saw promising big man Domantas Sabonis get drafted at 11, underrated shooting guard Caris LeVert at 20, rising forward Pascal Siakam at 27, descent big man Ivica Zubac at 27, former rookie of the year Malcom Brogdon at 36 and a few more. In 2017, star guard Donovan Mitchell was picked at 13, underrated power forward John Collins was taken at 19, very solid center Jarrett Allen was taken at 22, and Kyle Kuzma was taken at 27.
We’re not only seeing more later picks turn into good players but we’re seeing this happen rather quickly within the first few years of their careers. Heck, even the top 10 picks are having success earlier in their career than most of the all-time greats did. Just looking at the 2018 draft, the top 5 picks all look promising, especially Trae Young, Marvin Bagley III, Luca Doncic, Lauri Markkanen. The previous year, players like Jayson Tatum and De’Aaron Fox are rising stars while 2017’s draft with Ben Simmons, Buddy Hield (after a slow start), Brandon Ingram, Jaylen Brown, and Jamal Murray have also follow suit. The Summer League has seen a boost in ratings these last couple of years because the NBA fan now knows these players have skills early on and they can get an inside look at how they will be.
Why is all of this happening you may ask? Why are we seeing more success early on? Well, there’s a few reasons for that. The first reason is that the league is physical then it once was even 15 years ago. More fouls are called for less contact even being made. As a result, the reduced physicality in the league has made it easier for young players as young as 19 years to come into the league and get to rim even while still developing a fully formed NBA body. In years past, especially in the 1990’s and early 2000’s, young players with the exception of some such as LeBron James needed a few years to get stronger so they could handle the physicality of the league, especially down low. If young players are able to handle how things are now, then it increases that even talented later picks among them can as well.
Another factor that can’t be ignored is that these younger players have more access to game film and NBA highlights more now than their predecessors ever did. Having access makes it easier for players to study and copy moves from a younger age. Furthermore, AAU and other development programs help to accelerate the learning curve of the game for the players. These factors help to play a role in some of the young players that are driven to be able to have success.
The style of play is important because the league has more floor spacing with the three point shot now than it did in the past. Teams are running more pick and rolls and have big men that can floor space. The league is moving towards position-less basketball. As a result, there are less dominate bigs that post up by the paint and less of those that defend the paint due to floor spacing bigs moving them away from that area. As a result, the lanes to the basket are less congested at times.
The increase likelihood of finding good value outside of the top 5 has made NBA Draft closer to the NFL Draft. In years past, teams would go seasons sucking because they could barely get a lottery pick right. In some cases, teams would stay mediocre and lose in the first round all the time with no hope of progress because they would picking in the teens and couldn’t get a good player since it wasn’t a lottery pick. Now, we’ve seen with teams like the Jazz that they can win 50 games, go to the second round, and still find a young star in Donovan Mitchell with the 13th pick to replace losing Gordon Hayward.
There’s hope that the draft can be a viable way to develop a good team. The chances of a lottery pick and even a pick after that resulting in good player is higher now. Obviously one would prefer to obtain a lottery pick because there’s an increase chance that the player will be great. Teams like the Mavericks and Hawks tanked for Doncic and Young, respectively. We’ll still see tanking. It won’t go away. However, we won’t have to see teams doing the painful “trust the process” again. There’s no need to tank for 6 weeks with the hopes of 3 of them panning out and being really good.
A team might draft a few lottery picks but then also pick up other star players with their later picks in a period of 3 years instead of 6 or something absurd like that. An example are the Atlanta Hawks. They tanked for Trae Young in 2018 but they also drafted John Collins in 2017 with the 19th pick. They already a promising duo and even though they’re not bad enough to get a top 3 pick, they could draft well and get a solid player to help the team. The Warriors assembled a dynasty by getting Stephen Curry at the 7th pick, Klay Thompson at the 11th pick, and Draymond Green in the second round.
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At the time, getting multiple all stats outside of the top 5 was seen as a fluke. However, it seems like it could become more common moving forward. The Brooklyn Nets didn’t have top first round of that trade with the Celtics. Any other time, it would be impossible to build a young core outside free agency under those circumstances. However, the Nets were able to drat Jarrett Allen and Caris LeVert outside of the top five. An important part to mention was that they traded for D’Angelo Russell. The way teams and fans approach the NBA draft has changed these last couple of years.
