We Discovered the Best Way to Judge a QB in the Regular Season Part 2

This is the win record differential for many long term starters that came into the league in the early 2000s or at least became starters in the early 2000s.

Donovan McNabb

Kurt Warner

Jake Delhomme

Matt Hasselbeck

Chad Pennington

Michael Vick

Takeaway

Kurt Warner and Jake Delhomme had seasons spent in the Arena Football League and in NFL Europe. Those seasons are counted on their career charts because if they are left out, then it gives them an unfair advantage when calculating the averages for their career record differential, respectively. They were out of the league because they were deemed to not be good enough to be in the NFL at the time and to receive development elsewhere. If they were good enough to be in the league as backups or as starters, then those years would have been accounted for anyway, so they weren’t going to be awarded for having those years not counted for.

McNabb was basically slightly below average to average (even with Reid and good protection) when it came to performing relative to the wins an average quarterback would have. He was good around 2003-2004 and 2009 when he had very good, skill position players but showed he couldn’t have a higher peak (4.5+ wins above the average) or at least sustain it for multiple seasons (like in 2005 before getting hurt).

Warner basically had a few peaks with the Rams when Marshall Faulk was at his peak. Having very good receiving support and an offensive scheme were just compliments, since Warner was basically below average (relative to the wins an average quarterback would have gotten) when Faulk declined and when he went elsewhere. He performed 2–3 games above average when offensive-minded Ken Whisenhunt arrived in Arizona. His receiving support (albeit young) was only complimentary to his success, since he was average even with it before Whisenhunt arrived, albeit wide receiver Fitzgerald did also get better also.

When Delhomme and his offensive skill position players were healthy, he had some good seasons (2-4 wins above average), such as in 2003 and 2008. Some of his average years were met with injuries to him or his best player on offense (ex. Steve Smith). After 2008 (specifically the disastrous 2008 Divisional Round game), he was below average even with solid offensive support.

As a primary starter, Hasselbeck had defensive support that was decent as the average quarterback would have ranged from finishing a game under .500 and even a game above .500. His defenses were bad in his last couple of seasons in Seattle. Hasselbeck was basically average in Seattle until Shaun Alexander became an elite running back from 2003-2005. The better Alexander peaked, the higher Hasselbeck’s record differential became. He had around 2 to slightly over 3 wins above average during that 3-year stretch but never peaked higher.

Hasselbeck’s record differential slowly declined all the way to below average in the following seasons in Seattle when Alexander quickly regressed and eventually left the team. He finished just under a game above average in Tennessee when running back Chris Johnson was productive but not elite. He had a decent season, winning almost 2 games above average in 2015 when Chudzinski was the offensive coordinator in Indianapolis. Hasselbeck is productive when he has strong running back support. However, he only peaks at just being good but not great when he has an elite running back with star performances from other offensive players that help the running back. Otherwise, Hasselbeck is only just average at best when it comes to winning compared to the average quarterback in his situations.

Pennington alternated between healthy and unhealthy seasons, which hurt his win averages). When healthy, he was slightly below average to average despite having pretty solid offensive support. His one pretty good season was when the Dolphins utilize the Wild Cat offense for the first time when the league had no answers to it.

Vick was mostly slightly below average to barely above average (barely a game above the average QB in wins). Utilizing his dual threat abilities, he was good in 2004 but fell back to average in terms of wins with the same offensive star support. He was excellent to great in 2010 with added offensive support as he had a record differential of close to 4. However, he fell back to slightly below average/average whether the same offensive supporting cast was healthy (2011 and 2013) or unhealthy (2012).

Click here to read part 3 for more quarterback’s record differentials.