We Discovered the Best Way to Judge a QB in the Regular Season Part 3

This is the win record differential for many long term starters that came into the league in the early-mid 2000s (specifically 2003 and 2004).

Ben Roethlisberger

Eli Manning

Philip Rivers

Matt Schaub

Tony Romo

Carson Palmer

Takeaway

Roethlisberger had a couple of really good seasons (near 2-4 games above average). After his second season, he basically alternated between being below average, average, and barely above average (around a game above the wins an average QB would have gotten) for the next 8 seasons. Despite this, his teams were able to consistently make the playoffs when he was even just barely a game above average for multiple seasons due to the defensive support providing the team with a high enough floor for them to still make the playoffs. Many quarterbacks don’t make the playoffs with only 1 win above average due to their defensive support not being enough. Big Ben still had a few all-pro/pro bowl players on those teams.

In the mid to late 2010s, he started having really good seasons (2-5 games above average) but it was when he had all-pro level offensive help on the offensive line and skill position. When there were even injuries to those players, there was a drop-off in the wins. He never peaked as high as 5+ wins (MVP level season or really good while helping an elite player become OPOY) on those teams. Big Ben did a solid job of at least maintaining a consistent few games won above average through the last 8 years of his career when the defensive support wasn’t as strong compared to earlier in his career in this situation outside an injury-prone season. He at least had some very good seasons when the elite offensive support aged out in his final two years.

For his first half of his career, Eli Manning had many seasons where he was averaging around 2 games above what the average QB would win even if his stats didn’t look as good. In those years, he usually had a few really good skill position and or offensive line players. When the number of such players dropped a bit, he was mostly below average to average for the rest of his career. His best season was 2011, but it wasn’t as high as it was a little over 3 games above average.

Romo had a excellent 2007 season with very good offensive support as he was over 4 games above average. However, he didn’t sustain that level and only produced around 1-2 games above average for the following seasons. When the team took time retooling its offense around Romo, he was around 2 games above average, but if he was at 3 games, there could have been a few more postseason appearances. His peak was in 2014 (almost 6 games won above average) with not just a really good offensive supporting cast but, specifically, all-pro seasons from G Zach Martin and RB DeMarco Murray. The time it took for him to win over the starting job and the games missed because of injuries also limited Romo’s opportunities to potentially add more wins.

Philip Rivers has mostly just averaged 1-2 games above average throughout his career. His only 2 peak seasons (5+ games above average) were when he was really good but with a running back that won the MVP (LaDanian Tomlinson) in 2006 and when he was actually at an MVP level with multiple impact offensive players, despite Tomlinson declining in 2009. Other than that, some of his 1-2 games above average seasons were on teams that had healthy and strong offensive support (2010, 2011, and 2013). He had a period of time between 2010 and 2012 where he didn’t have more than 1 game winning drive in a season. This hurt his ability to have a higher record differential and to subsequently make the playoffs relative to the decent defensive support he had during that time period. On some occasions, he would barely finish a game above average or even slightly below average, even with pretty good defensive support (2008 and 2017, respectively). He only had 2 seasons after 2009 in which he had a record differential of even over 2.

Rivers has had some bad breaks with injuries to his skill position players during the 2010s. However, he still performed noticeably below average from a winning standpoint relative to the defensive support he got in the seasons where key offensive players (on the offensive line and or skill position group) missed many games due to injury or simply regress. Basically, he was too susceptible to such circumstances since the defensive support he received (points allowed) still provided a solid scoring margin for error to meet due to the solid record that an average quarterback could have obtained with them that Rivers failed to achieve. Basically, he didn’t need to lead his offense to a lot of points to win some of the games he played in. 

He’s only had a couple of seasons (2015 and 2016) where his defensive support was really bad. Otherwise, his defenses ranged from sub-mediocre (the average quarterback would have been roughly 2 games under .500) to pretty solid (the average quarterback would have been a game above average) and even pretty good occasionally. As a result, he’s rarely had a season where even winning up to 3 games above average would not have been enough to lead his team to the postseason. This is why Rivers constantly winning above average by a game at best and even winning below average sometimes noticeably limited the amount of times he even made the playoffs, especially after Tomlinson exited the team.

In summary, it appears that the best chance for Rivers to perform decently above average relative to his defensive support is to have a complete offensive situation with multiple stars in the skill position groups (especially at running back) and on the offensive line. However, having it doesn’t guarantee that he will even have consistent peaks with them, since there will still be seasons within offensive situation windows where he will only perform at a slightly above average rate (1-2 games above) with such help. Also, he is susceptible to performing below average if there is decline in performance or injuries to those around him on offense. Not performing consistently higher, even when given pretty solid defensive support, prevented him from making the playoffs more often during his time.

Schaub had some really good seasons winning above average (2 to 3.5 games won) in 2008 and especially 2012 when he had excellent offensive help. However, those were opportunities for him to have peaked higher than those seasons. He had good defensive support in 2012 as the average quarterback would likely have gone 8-8. As a result, having a high peak such as 6 wins above average could have gotten the team to 14 wins, a number 1 seed that season, rather than to go on the road in the Divisional Round and subsequently lose. He basically performed at an average rate in 2011 on a team that had quality offensive help and good defensive support as well. In the other seasons, he had record differentials that ranged from average to a little over a game above average on teams that had sub-mediocre and bad defensive support. On the teams that were complete with defensive support and offensive help, he lacked peaks. His years as a backup are still accounted for when calculating his career record differential because he was only a backup due to poor play costing him the chance to remain a starter.

Palmer’s defensive support for the Bengals ranged from a few sub-mediocre seasons to mostly being solid. Outside 2005, Palmer was basically below average to marginally above average in terms of record differential. His 2005 season was excellent as he averaged a little over 3 games above average. Regarding his record differential, he has excuses in 2006 since it was his first game back from a late-season torn ACL, and he did have an elbow injury he dealt with that ended his 2008 season early. However, he doesn’t have such excuses for his below average and average record differentials in 2007, 2008, and 2010. It seemed as though he struggled when his left tackle Anderson declined and soon left the team during the two-year period between 2007 and 2008 before getting a little better in 2009 with strong run support from Cedric Benson. He was surprisingly below average in 2010 and only led 1 game-winning drive.

Palmer had really bad defensive support without much offensive support, especially with offensive Hugh Jackson getting fired after 2011. Palmer had good defensive support and some offensive help, which helped. Palmer got better each year with his record differential, including his best year in 2013 at 4 games above average. He then declined afterward despite a similar offensive cast. Overall, Palmer had very few impressive impact record differentials. He was inconsistent even when accounting for his health, as he had too many below average seasons and not enough regular above average seasons (1-3 games above average), even with mostly good offensive help.

Click here to read part 4 for more quarterback’s record differentials.