We Discovered the Best Way to Judge a QB in the Regular Season Part 6

This is the win record differential for many long term starters that came into the league in the early to late 2010s and very early 2020s.

Patrick Mahomes

Deshaun Watson

Josh Allen

Lamar Jackson

Baker Mayfield

Kyler Murray

Daniel Jones

Justin Herbert

Joe Burrow

Jalen Hurts

Tua Tagaovailoa

Takeaway

Mahomes has basically had a regular great or MVP level season every year he has started up until 2023. This is reflected in his career record differentials being slightly over 4, and it includes peaks of 6+ in 2022, 2018, and 2020. He had excellent offensive support during those seasons. In some of those seasons, he did not have good defensive support in terms of how the average quarterback’s record would have been based on the points allowed. However, his record differential was low in 2023 as he just reached under 1 game above average. It happened to be his best defensive support and his worst offensive situation, at least pertaining to the receiving core. It remains to be seen if 2023 was an outlier, partially the amount of costly drops by receivers that impacted some of the games, or if it is a sign that Mahomes’ record differentials are not going to be high or even good in seasons where he has strong defensive support at the expense of a strong offensive situation.

For a few years, Watson was able to perform really well above the average quarterback in terms of wins with solid offensive support. His 2019 team was able to have such success even with the defensive support not being that impressive. However, he technically performed below average in 2020 despite having good stats. His lack of even a single game-winning drive, even when accounting for some bad breaks in a few games, played a role in this. His best offensive player, Deandre Hopkins, was traded. It appears his time away from football has since negatively affected his ability to get back to performing 3+ games above average. We will see if he can get back to that in Cleveland moving forward.

Josh Allen was basically below average and then average his first two seasons before making a huge leap and being almost 7 games above average in 2020 with only the addition of all-pro receiver Diggs, the only standout among the offensive supporting cast that year. 2020 was his worst defensive support as the average wouldn’t have gone even 7-10 with that team. However, in the following seasons, Allen fluctuated between being barely a game above average and excellent (in terms of wins above average). This correlated with Diggs fluctuating between playing at a regular pro bowl level and at an all-pro level despite some offensive support additions and having a strong defensive support floor (in terms of win that the average QB would have gotten based on the points allowed). It will be seen how things will look with Diggs going. Similar to Mahomes, one could make the argument that the Bills should pivot towards adding offensive support even at the expense of the defense in order to maximize Allen’s ability to win a lot above replacement level QBs, since the two have shown they can have high peaks under those circumstances.

Based on the defensive support, the chart shows that the average quarterback would have had a winning record every season Lamar Jackson has started for the Ravens. Jackson has had decent offensive support by having a pro bowl/all-pro level tight end and usually star production from a couple of linemen and in the backfield. To Jackson’s credit, when he has been healthy for a full season, he has been really good to great in terms of how he wins relative to what the average quarterback would have done in those spots. Moving forward, we will see if having better receiving support can help Lamar Jackson have a record differential of 5+ or not. His two MVPs came with record differentials under 5. Also, we will have to see how he performs in seasons when he has mediocre to weak defensive support (the average quarterback having bad records under those circumstances) to see if the record differentials hold up then or not.

Mayfield has had multiple below average seasons and a few average to marginally above average season. His outlier season was 2020 in which he was 5.61 games above what an average quarterback would have done on a team that would have gone 5-11 with an average quarterback based on the chart. Such a number is associated with an MVP level season or a really good season working with an OPOY level skill position player. In Mayfield’s case, it was neither. Instead, it was a season in which he had strong offensive coaching and performances from each of his offensive line teammates that ranged from good to all-pro level. To Mayfield’s credit, he at least provided a superb peak under those circumstances and his many high scoring shootout wins contributed to the high record differential. In Baker’s career so far, he seems to need good offensive coaching and a high level offensive line, likely due to his height, in order to perform well above average. Just having one great lineman with one skill position standout is not enough to get him to be above average. We will see if this changes as it pertains to him moving forward.

Daniel Jones has basically been below average relative to his circumstances in his career except for 2022 when he was good, with slightly over 2 games above average. To Jones’ credit, 2022 was his best offensive situation, but it was only solid at best. It was also his best defensive support in terms of how the average quarterback’s win percentage would have been. Time will tell if he can improve enough to last as a starter to be able to show that he can have higher peaks, fewer valleys regardless of circumstances, and gets to have better defensive support and offensive help. Kyler Murray has been average so far, with his best seasons (1.5-2.5 wins above average) being when he had a star wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins at his best and healthy (2020-2021). Murray also had his best defensive support in 2021. Time will tell how Murray develops and fares with Hopkins no longer there. It seems as though the Cardinals should prioritize giving Murray a great receiver to help him have a good record differential along with still having strong defensive support. We will see if he can provide a higher peak beyond just 2 games though.

Herbert has been mostly pretty good (2-4 games above average) in his career. His outlier season was 2023 in which he performed almost a full game below average. He may not have played badly throughout the season, but he managed only one game-winning drive in the clutch. It contrasts with the 5 game winning drives per season he had the prior two years. He has consistently had really bad defensive support in his career as the average QB likely averages 5 wins a season during his span. In contrast, Herbert has had some good offensive support, albeit injured prone in 2022 and 2023. The best defensive support for him was in 2023, but it was mediocre at best. The question comes from whether 2023 was an outlier for Herbert solely due to the health concerns and productivity of the offensive supporting cast as well as the coaching, or if there is more to it. We will wait to see if he gets better defensive support and what his record differential can be moving forward with that and a healthier offensive cast. We will also find out if he is capable of having a very high peak (5+) season under good circumstances (such as having a healthy offense again).badly

Since his rookie season on a bad team, Burrow has also been pretty good (2.5-4 games above average). In those seasons, he had really good offensive support from his skill position players but bad play from his offensive lines. He had solid defensive support in 2021 and 2022 as the average QB would have at or near .500. 2023 had bad defensive support for Burrow, but his injuries also affected his performance and, consequently, his ability to lead the team to more wins above the average quarterback in those circumstances. He finished just a game above average with 0 game-winning drives and didn’t finish the season. Moving forward, he will have to stay healthy and confirm that 2023 was a fluke. We will also see if he can have a very high peak (5+ wins) and if it is only a matter of finally having a good offensive line at the same time as having good skill position players, regardless of the defense.

Since taking over as the primary starter in 2021, Hurts has had strong offensive support that features all-pro level and well-performing complimentary players on the offensive line and at the skill position groups. He had solid defensive support from 2021-2022. The defensive support weakens dramatically in 2023. From 2022-2023, Hurt has been great with his record differential of being 5+. His 2022 season was MVP caliber while his 2023 season was really good as he had bad defensive support but augmented with 4 game-winning drives rather than being dominant. There was a game drop off from 2022 to 2023 when his offensive coordinator Steichen left. The massive spike in Hurts’ record differential from 2021 to 2022 can be attributed to his development but also the improved support from his offensive skill position group. The question moving forward is how much of his ability to have a great record differential even with bad defensive support is tied to his offensive help compared to himself solely. The concern is wondering what type of drop off there would be if and when his offensive support gets worse (C Kelce retired) and how his offensive coaching can also impact things. Time will tell how great his own impact is.

Tua had defensive support that started out okay (the average quarterback would have been 1-2 under .500) but got a little worse (the average QB would have gone 3 under .500). It coincided with the overall offensive supporting cast improving significantly from the below average/average group he had in his first two years. Tua has had a steady record differential (close to 2 at lowest and as high as near 4 games above average) so far in his career. When he had better defensive support but a mediocre offensive situation, he was above average. When he had a worse defensive support but significantly better offensive situation, even with some offensive line injuries, his record differential increased by roughly 1-2 games. The concern, outside of health, is whether Tua can provide higher peaks with his record differential, such as having 5+ games won above average, since he has a good offensive supporting cast.