Let’s cut to the chase:
AFC
AFC East:
Bills 13-4: the Bills have a top 5 (and in my opinion, top 2) quarterback in the league, good receiving corps, and a solid defense that just added Super Bowl champion Von Miller to that group.
Dolphins 12-5: Dolphins gave Tua some weapons, and fixed their line, while installing a scheme that finally fits him perfectly, and the rest of the personnel. They’ve had winning records the last two years despite coaching issues and injuries. Don’t be surprised if the week 15 game between Buffallo and Miami is flexed out.
Jets 6-11: Jets have a good roster, and playable backup QBs in the event that Wilson is bad or injured. If Wilson is good, then the Jets are lucky.
Patriots 6-11: Patriots had a weak free agency and draft, and get rid of/failed to keep some key players. Most importantly, they have chosen Matt Patricia to be the primary playcaller – for a new scheme/offense that he, nor Joe Judge, nor Belichick have run before. And the players don’t like it, and their offensive line will be shaky. Mac Jones has a lot on his plate.
AFC South:
Colts 11 -6 – The colts should have made the playoffs last season. Matt Ryan is the perfect for this offense over Wentz: Ryan is more comfortable throwing checkdowns, and will finally have a good offensive line.
Titans 10-7: Titans lost AJ Brown and some linemen – all of this following their collapse in the playoffs last season. Lastly, they drafted a young QB as pressure builds on Tannehill. This, plus Ryan going to the Colts is a recipe for the Titans to not win the division, and probably not get into the playoffs.
Texans 7-10: Very mid roster, but Davis Mills is underrated and will be solid in most games.
Jaguars 7-10: Jaguars spent a lot of money on free agency and got rid of Urban Meyer. Lawrence has flaws in his game, but the improved roster (which hopefully has receivers that can catch) and new coach will be a better environment for him.
AFC West:
Raiders 12-5: Raiders made the playoffs last year despite all the turmoil (John Gruden, Henry Ruggs). What did they do? They added Davante Adams, a top 2 receiver in the league. And then added Chandler Jones play with Maxx Crosby on defense. Amongst other additions. Josh McDaniels is a very capable OC, and brought lots of Patriots brass with him – which will probably work out given the strong roster. In the 2020s NFL, it seems like spending money actually gives results.
Chargers 11-6: Chargers have been knocking on the door the past few years, Herbert gets better every year, he’s durable, and they added J.C Jackson (and Van Noy!) to the defense.
Broncos 11-6: Wilson, whether you think he’s great or a little overrated, still gives teams a high floor. Denver had rosters that were wasted with subpar QB play. With Wilson, Denver should be a playoff team.
Chiefs 10-7: Yes, Chiefs will be last in the division. Sounds crazy huh? Well it’s simple: Tyreek Hill is not just a good receiver, he’s generational talent. He made it difficult to effectively stop the Chiefs’ offense. Last year, teams started adjusting, and the team started out 3-4. Now? The AFC is stronger, has better QBs, and now the Chiefs don’t have Hill anymore as a cheat code. Mahomes has gotten by without having to be precise with his accuracy and timing, but now, he will have to be. In that Bengals AFC title game in the second half, Mahomes was inaccurate when the Bengals switched their coverage and took away easier completions. Don’t panic: The Chiefs will still be good without Hill, but no longer significantly better than anyone else in the AFC. Is it so far fetched to say that, just like last year when they started out 3-4, they can’t start out 5-5? And lose an extra 2 games? That alone can cause them to miss out on tiebreakers.
AFC North:
Bengals 12-5: They improved their line, and retained their guys. Enough said.
Ravens 10-7: The Ravens were gonna get 10 wins last year if Lamar didn’t get hurt. But their receiving corps looks suspect, and they’ve doubled down on their system.
Steelers 9-8: Steelers have a good defense and receiving corps that’ll keep them in a lot of games. Mike Tomlin is a great coach, and Trubisky is good enough to get teams to a winning record even if he isn’t a great QB.
Browns 4-13: Too much turmoil. Deshaun is out for 11 games, and will surely be rusty and not all there mentally when he returns.
AFC Playoff Picture:
- Bills 13-4
- Raiders 12-5
- Bengals 12-5
- Colts 11-6
- Dolphins 12-5
- Chargers 11-6
- Broncos 11-6
Raiders beat Broncos in a thriller, Bengals beat Chargers in a great game (Burrow vs Herbert!), and Dolphins beat Colts (Colts receiving corps won’t be able to exploit the Dolphins secondary).
In the divisional round, Bills beat the Dolphins (in a close game!), and Raiders get revenge against the Bengals.
Bills beat Raiders in the AFC title game, and advance to the Super Bowl.
Now for the NFC…
NFC
NFC East:
Cowboys 10-7: Cowboys got worse. But their roster is still decent, and their division stinks.
Eagles 10-7: Eagles improved their roster, but Hurts isn’t that good of a QB.
Washington 8-9: Wentz is really not that much of an upgrade over their preceding QBs: Wentz proved last year he’s not really suited for the game manager role, as he doesn’t know when to check it down, he holds onto the ball too long trying to make a play, and can force it into coverage.
Giants 4-13: This team stinks. Daniel Jones is not that good of a QB: fumbles like mad, can stare down receivers, not consistently accurate, can throw too late, etc. And lot of these issues can flare up in critical moments in games. Their roster isn’t good enough to prevent him from being in these spots. Whether Brian Dabbol is good or not, these issues will still be there.
NFC North:
Vikings 12-5: Cousins was actually good last year. A new coach that’ll get along with cousins, and an upgraded defense should surely help out the team.
Packers 11-6: The Packers lost not just Davante Adams, but even other players on the receiving corps. Rodgers will need some time to be in sync with this receiving corps – especially given that he practiced very little with them in the offseason/preseason. An extra loss or 2 isn’t crazy to imagine.
Bears 8-9: Fields should take a big leap: many of his issues last year were fixable (mainly, getting faster at processing the field). His poise, ball placement, and mobility all showed potential. Their roster isn’t that great though.
Lions: 9-8: The Lions had a good draft/offseason. Goff got better at the end of last year, and Campbell is a good coach.
NFC West:
Rams 10-7: The Rams offensive line will take a stepback. Allen Robinson’s separation isn’t great, and Stafford is inconsistent, quite frankly. He relies a lot on Cooper Kupp and can lock in on him. Jaylen Ramsey can get roasted by very good receivers more than one would like, and the loss of Von Miller makes their defensive line more manageable. This, plus a Super Bowl hangover will probably see the Rams dip a bit.
49ers 10-7: 49ers still have a good roster. Lance, even if not that great, will probably be able to manage games enough. And if he stinks or gets hurt, Garopollo will just run it back.
Cardinals 7-10: Murray relies a lot on DHop, who is out for the first 6 games. Additionally, in the Kingsbury and Murray era, the Cards always finish seasons poorly: the combination of Murray getting beat up, and his lack of ability/effort to consistently exploit defenses without relying on his athleticism and DeAndre Hopkins likely contribute to this. Cardinals also lost some guys in free agency, and players don’t like Murray much.
Seahawks 4-13: The roster isn’t very good, and their QB room is awful.
NFC South:
Buccaneers 12-5: Brady, the roster is still good
Saints 11-6: The roster is very good, they still have the OC from the Sean Payton years, year 2 of Winston in this system, yadda yadda. They own Tampa for some reason.
Carolina 6-11: Mid receiving corps. Their defense is good, but Baker isn’t that good.
Falcons 2-15: Mariota isn’t that good, the offensive line is bad, Ridley is suspended, their defense is meh. Someone has to be bad!
NFC Playoff Picture:
- Buccaneers
- Vikings
- Rams
- Cowboys
- Packers
- Saints
- 49ers
Vikings beat 49ers, Saints beat Rams (Rams’ homefield advantage isn’t that great), Packers (Rodgers is money against Dallas, and why bet on Dallas?).
Buccaneers beat Saints in a close game, is Winston gonna perform well? Vikings beat Packers,
Buccaneers LOSE – teams with the type of weird drama Brady is having don’t usually win it all. Brady, in the playoffs, randomly loses to a mid-QB sometimes (Flacco, Eli, Foles)
That’s right, Bills Vikings Super Bowl. But: let’s do awards.
Awards
- MVP: Tom Brady, or Derrek Carr
- OPOY: Justin Herbert
- DPOY: T.J Watt
Super Bowl LVII
Bills beat Vikings in the Super Bowl! Bills win 34-28. Bills will be in control for most of the game, but Vikings will have a chance late to win the game, but stall on 4th down.
