Predicting the Patriots 2022 Season

The New England Patriots are pulling up to the 2022 NFL season with a rather… unique team.

Okay, let’s cut to the chase: the Pats aren’t going to be too good this year. The ceiling for this team is around 9 wins, and the floor is possibly 4-5 wins. In reality, they’ll most likely be a 6-7 win team. Why?

The Patriots have installed Matt Patricia as their offensive coordinator – wait, no, the primarily playcaller, but not the official OC. Matt Patricia only coached on the offensive side of the ball for 2 seasons – and it was some 18 years ago, as an offensive line assistant . Matt’s limited experience coaching offense was nearly 2 decades ago, and his stint as head coach in the Lions was a disaster. Players do not like him very much.

More importantly, the Patriots are incorporating West Coast Offense/Zone Blocking schemes, which neither he, nor Bill Belichick have ever run. Oh yeah, and Belichick brought back Joe Judge, this time to be an offensive assistant. Joe Judge, like Patricia, has had very little time coaching on offensive, and those results were mixed. He too also hasn’t coached this type of offense. And even more noticeably, there is no outside assistant or consultant on the Patriots coaching staff that has run this system before.

And lastly, the offensive personnel does not really fit this scheme: the Patriots linemen are not the particular brand of mobile linemen that can pull consistently – and again, many of them have not been in this system before. Mac Jones is entering his second season, and has to learn a new system with an offensive line that isn’t comfortable with this system, with a coaching staff that lacks experience with this system.

The Patriots had a rather weird free agency: they signed Devante Parker, which is a solid pickup, but injury concerns and skillset may present problems: Parker is one of those Dez-Bryant style receivers that doesn’t regularly gain separation. Aside from that, the Patriots didn’t target one of the other heralded receivers, and perhaps above all, they traded star right guard Shaq Mason and failed to resign Ted Karras, thus creating a new hole for them on the offensive line.

Which they then addressed in the 1st round of the draft, with guard Cole Strange. Strange may end up being good, but he had a 3rd round grade; this matters, because, well, the Patriots could have taken the gamble that he would still be available for another round, and they could pick someone else in the first round, to target certain positions of need like middle linebacker (with Dont’a Hightower not returning to the team), and possibly tackle (in the event that one of Trent Brown and Isaiah Wynn do not return). But the Patriots didn’t do that. They elected to draft 2 running backs, a QB in the 4th round, and they even drafted a couple of cornerbacks instead of just resigning J.C. Jackson, who did not command a record breaking deal or anything. Lastly, they drafted Tyquon Thornton, who, while fast, wasn’t really needed as the Pats already have a fast wideout in Nelson Algholor.

So the team had a suspect free agency/draft, has switched their scheme/system to one that many players are not comfortable with, and that system is being led by coaches who have barely even coached offense, let alone that particular offensive system. And that’s not getting into some of the problems from last year that didn’t seem to be addressed: The Patriots running defense was particularly vulnerable, and the Patriots did not make much changes to their linebacking group. Mack Wilson will have to step up big time.

Additionally, at the end of last year, Matthew Slater hinted at some locker room friction – which seemed to coincide with the Patriots 1-3 finish to end the season which saw the same game play out several times – inconsistent offense that would stall for awhile, then finally get going late, only for the defense to fail to make a stop because they couldn’t stop the run or didn’t have the talent to contain elite skill position players. But that locker room friction Slater alluded to – that’s something that you have to at least think about given that, again, Patricia – who has been spoken very unfavorably of by former players – is on the staff. It makes you wonder how the Patriots will respond to adversity this season.

1. @ MIA – L – Tyreek Hill is a problem, and it’s at Miami. They are in tune with their scheme
2. @ PITT – L – Mac struggles against the blitz, and the Steelers have a strong receiving core
3. BAL – L – Lamar will make enough plays to win the game
4. @ GB – L – Aaron Rodgers will have enough time to gel with his receivers. GB has a good defense.
5. DET – W – They are good but will probably underwhelm having to come up to Foxborough
6. @ CLE – W – no Watson
7. CHI – W? – Bears have a very “mid” roster. At NE.
8. @ NY – W? – It all depends on the QB play. Will Wilson improve enough?
9. IND – L – Pats have no answer for Taylor, and Ryan will be more steady than Wentz.
10. bye
11. NY – W – At home. Again, it depends on the QB play.
12. @ MIN – L – Minny has a roster well equipped to stop NE, at Minnesota
13. BUF – L – Josh Allen, Steffon Diggs, nuff said
14. @ ARI – W? – Murray and Kingsbury have questions marks still, their roster got worse
15. @ LV – L – Belichick struggles against former assistants, Raiders outclass NE’s roster top to bottom
16. CIN – L – They have an elite QB, and all around better roster
17. MIA – L – MIA at this point will be in the playoff race, and won’t mess around. Tyreek Hill.
18. BUF – L – Only way the Pats win is if Buffalo is resting their starters.

Final Record: 6-11