The GOAT Case for Stephen Curry

Crazy right?

No.

Stephen Curry is a one of a kind player. The greatest shooter ever, and also the best player without the ball in his hands ever, Curry adds impact to a team like no other. Curry is a game-changing talent and icon for this generation of basketball, and there are zero players that can replicate his unique impact on a team.

As said in other similar posts, a lot of the top 10 – top 15 players have a GOAT case. It just depends on your criteria. How much you value pure accolade count, box score stats and recorded outcomes, vs the context of those stats and accolades, along with hypotheticals. How much you value versatility and impact over sheer individual production.

As mentioned before, Curry is one of the most impactful players in league history – both on and off the court. He’s one of the most impactful players to team success, ever. His team’s on-off metrics show it.

Statistical arguments for Curry

On this site, we do not typically like to use statistics as the best way to judge players, as they do not tell the whole story, and the statistics that we use to judge players are limited by what statisticians choose to record. There are many impactful things players do that are not recorded by regular stats. For example, Curry’s movement without the ball generates easy looks for his teammates; he won’t get any statistical credit for these plays (like an Assist), but it is still as impactful as one.

Advanced stats are slightly better in this regard, as they they may attempt to put statistics in the context usage, team impact, etc. They are still not perfect, but for the sake of this section, there are some statistics that show that Curry is one of a kind, almost one of one.

Plus Minus

Plus Minus is a stat that is meant to reflect how well a team performs when a player is on the court. (If a player has a plus-minus of 10, for example, it means that the team outscored the opponent by 10 points when that player was on the court.)

From 2014-2019, the Warriors outscored opponents by more than 4000+ points when Curry was on the court. When Curry was off, they were outscored by more than 400. To put it into perspective, Curry’s 5 year plus minus during this stretch is significantly above other notable stars in the league, past and present:

Credit for these statistics goes to Ben Cohen.

Now, plus minus isn’t perfect. It doesn’t always account for teammate quality. It’s easier to have a good plus-minus if you are playing mostly with starters, who are also really good players. (And to be fair, the chart above includes Kobe’s 2012 seasons and Shaq’s 04 and 05 seasons, which typically aren’t considered their peaks.) Which is why Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus was created.

Regularized Adjusted-Plus-Minus

RAPM is a stat that tracks players’ impact relative to the quality of their teammates and opponents. It looks at every single possession – including between substitutions – and runs regression to determine each player’s impact, and accounts for collinearity – players who play with each other regularly, and not with each other. So over a large sample size – multiple years – it can be pretty accurate. You can read more about it here!

RAPM also values role players, as all advanced stats due since role players can be impactful. So you can mentally filter it out yourself to focus on star players.

When looking at RAPM (Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus), Curry is number 1 for several 5-year stretches starting from 2014 through 2022 (as 2014 was when he broke out, during his mid 20s). Here are some examples (click on the image to see the chart):

2014-2019
2017-2022

Notice how Curry is still number 1, even as Draymond dropped off on this list.

We can even average it out from 2014-2023, and see that Curry is still on top:

Now, keep in mind, RAPM does not go back to before 1997, so we do not have data for players like Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Kareem, Wilt, Russell, etc. But this gives us a good frame of reference for how impactful Curry was in his own era.

Simply put, Curry is a game-changing player. Having him in your team creates enormous value, due to his ability to stretch the defense out dramatically. There just isn’t a great comp for Curry; players like Lillard, Harden, and Trae lack the off-ball gravity of Curry, and their shooting efficiency is not near where Curry’s is.

To put it into perspective: no other high-efficiency scorer in league history is a threat from every where on the court, and constantly moving with threating abilities. It’s like a wild animal on the loose that’s a threat to pounce down at any moment. It’s why Curry’s impact is much stronger than other players. And again, there really isn’t a perimeter player that’s comparable.

If there was a fantasy draft with all of the best players if all time, there is a valid argument for picking Steph Curry with the number 1 overall pick.

Curry has elevated the legacies of those around him probably greater than anyone else has

A lot of people don’t think about this that much, but the legacy of Curry’s supporting cast with and without him is probably bigger than that of other star players, by far.

Draymond Green is a great player, but unfortunately, a lot of his strengths would not be utilized as well if he played next to any other star. He’s a great defensive player – an anchor on that end – but his playmaking on offense would be hindered by other superstars that are more ball-dominant and less tolerant of Draymond’s scoring. A lot of Draymond’s playmaking works with Stephen Curry’s relentless off-ball cutting, and him drawing doubles to give Draymond easy 4-on-3 opportunities. Draymond’s scoring has never really been his strong suit and his struggled outside of 2016. His shooting, finishing, handles, etc. are not really very good. So his success would have been limited on other teams without Steph.

Similarly, Klay Thompson is also a fantastic, but again, most teams would unfortunately relegate him to being a 3&D spot-up shooter, rather than a legitimate 2nd scoring option, because they would hold his ball-handling skills against him. Additionally, he does not have a string layup package he can use at the rim. It’s simply a fact that most players with Klay’s skillset usually get pigeonholed as role players.

In short, Curry’s two main teammates – Green and Klay – would have been under utilized and relegated to just being role players on other teams. Curry took players that would normally be relegated as role players, and turned them into legitimate 2nd and 3rd options on a championship teams.

There’s not many players that have been able to do that, and a lot of that comes from his skillset – Curry is the greatest shooter ever (changed the game), and is probably the best off-ball player ever. As a result, it is easy for him to get his teammates involved, generate easy shots for them, and allow them to handle the ball and score more. This makes him versatile enough to play with a large variety of players. Curry doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be effective. This allows the Warriors to run a real offensive system, that can let other players get into a rhythm, and it makes it easy for the Warriors’ front office to build around Curry. It can allow the Warriors to win games without needing Curry to play amazingly (since, again, he does not need the ball in his hands to be effective). And in turn, it makes it easy for the Warriors to get players that can even mask some of Curry’s weaknesses.

Curry’s defense has been critiqued. But as we’ve seen , it hasn’t been bad enough for it to not be masked by the Warriors. And the players that the Warriors have masked it with – Draymond, Gary Paton, Wiggins, etc. – Curry has largely benefitted them. The Warriors have been able to trot out lineups featuring one-dimensional defensive players because Curry can largely boost their offense.

If you had to pick one play to sum up Curry’s greatness… this might be it. He literally runs to where GP2 is and shoots the ball for his teammate. What other superstar would or could do this? What other superstar could make up for a non-shooter like this?

Some of the lineups Curry has played with in Finals games, other superstars would not jive with. Many players would not mesh well with Draymond Green. Many players would not allow Klay to shoot as much as he does – veterans on the team early on actually were upset at Klay even shooting as much as he did. You can imagine how a player like Kobe would react to all the games where Klay’s shot was not falling… and kept on chucking anyway. Curry’s offense is so great, it makes it easier for the Warriors to put defensive player around him. Players can affect their front office’s ability to build around them, especially in the modern era.

Look at many other legend’s number 2 options. A lot of them are capable players that can – and have – led playoff runs by themselves. LeBron had DWade, Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving – and even though LeBron obviously brought them their most career success, many of them still led teams to the playoffs consistently, and Wade peaked before Lebron when he led the Heat to a title in 2006 as a number #1 option (Shaq was a bit older so he wasn’t able to consistently average what he used to).

Jordan? Pippen still led multiple playoff runs (at made a WCF in 2000 with the Blazers, past his prime).

Kareem and Magic had each other. Shaq had Kobe, who quickly became a top 5 player in the league during their threepeat. Both of them were good enough to win without each other.

Curry is one of the few whose managed to win multiple rings with costars may not really be able to lead a team to the playoffs as #1 options by themselves. Again, their skillsets: most player’s with Klay Thompson’s skillset are relegated to a spot-up shooter role. Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza, etc. Draymond Green, similarly, would usually have a Patrick Beverly/Serge Ibaka role – good defender, but gets moved after a couple of seasons.

This isn’t even including other players. Andrew Wiggins was literally considered a bust in Minnesota. But now he has carved out a nice niche for himself as a small forward, and even earned an all-star nod and a $100 million contract. And with Draymond and Klay’s struggles in the 2022 Finals, Wiggins was effectively the de facto 2nd option for the Warriors – which is all the more impressive for Curry’s case.

GPII was literally bouncing around the league before finding a home in Golden State. Again, look at his skillset; he is a great defender, and great athlete, but has very little in the way of scoring.

Kevon Looney is a great rebounding big man, solid defender, solid pick-man, but also has limited scoring prowess.

And lastly, yes, Kevin Durant. KD was incredible in Golden State. But Curry was more important, as the team was still built on his style of play. Durant was great in his role, and would often be the team’s best scorer, but he was still largely a beneficiary of Steph. No matter how you feel about KD’s role on the team, KD’s only 2 rings have still been playing next to Curry. KD is a fantastic player – this isn’t saying he’s some bum, I know readers may get emotional and riled up.

credit of course goes to the Thinking Basketball channel for this video, great content.

Oh yeah, and by the way, Curry was dominant.

Curry’s dominance

Curry took over the league.

During the early 2010s, some people thought this would be the start of LeBron’s “era” in which he hoards over all of the championships. Some people thought it would be Chris Paul’s time in which he would finally take over, once he went to the Clippers. Others thought Durant and the Thunder with Westbrook would be making a bunch of Finals.

But it was Curry who came out of nowhere and took over everything. 6 finals appearances (including 5 straight) and 4 championships in an 8 year span. As of right now, he won 4 rings in an 8 year span. There’s a short list of teams that have managed to accomplish that – Jordan’s Bulls, Magic’s Lakers, and Russel’s Celtics. Curry is an icon.

People like to knock Curry’s legacy because he played alongside Durant on a “superteam” and Durant won 2 Finals MVPs. But this is silly:

Most of the people who say this, don’t hold this against Magic and Kareem for playing with each other, or Kobe and Shaq. So that argument is silly.

And Curry and Durant teaming up pissed people off because everyone knew how it would “ruin the league”. We already acknowledged that Curry elevated his teammates. So if acquiring Durant is enough to make the team “unfair”, shouldn’t that be a testament to Curry’s greatness – especially when Durant playing with Harden, Kyrie, or Booker was not viewed the same way?

And we knock Curry for not getting the Finals MVPs with Durant. But it’s not as if Curry was terrible or anything in those series. He still played really well. What happened was simply that the Cavs made an effort to sell out to stop Steph, even if it meant KD got favorable looks. Cavaliers coach Ty Lue said it himself.

And Curry was willing to play along with that. He didn’t play selfishly to help his own stats. So why should Curry get punished for being unselfish, and being willing to play with others?

When Shaq and Kobe played alongside each other, the two beefed, and Kobe quite literally shot the Lakers out of their 2004 series. When Wade and LeBron played together, Wade acknowledged they were not a natural fit, and thus he had to take a backseat for things to work.

So again, should we penalize Curry for not winning “the Finals MVP”, when the actual context behind it shows a much more valuable part of his game? That he can easily fit with other stars, and is okay letting them shine?

Impact on the game itself

In the meta-sense, Curry has also changed the game.

Curry has been praised for making teams shoot threes more, but this actually undersells his impact because 3PT shooting was already going up regardless. Curry’s biggest impact is not even making teams shoot more 3s – it’s changing how people shoot threes.

For much of history, teams were criticized for shooting three-pointers on the fastbreak, in transition. It was considered a bad shot.

Star players that pulled up for a three off-the-dribble were usually criticized. It was only allowed as a “heat-check” if a player was cooking. And role players that tried this were benched.

When players like LeBron used to shoot deep logo threes, it was looked at as a novelty.

Teams that primarily shot 3s were viewed as teams that couldn’t win rings.

Curry made all of these things normal. And he proved that a 3pt shooting team – led by a 3pt shooting player – could win championships. That’s Curry’s legacy. He’s the one that was always going to come along. Since the introduction of the 3PT shot, there was going to eventually be a player that would unleash its potential and dominate with it. Others like Reggie Miller and Ray Allen were great and came close, but Steph Curry is the culmination of this all.

Stephen Curry – The GOAT

So Curry has enhanced the legacies of the people next to him. He’s turned players that would be forced to be role players on other teams, into bonafide #2 options on a championship team. He’s turned former disappointments into all-stars, he’s turned journeymen and would-be journeymen into championship role players, and elevated the legacy of Kevin Durant from someone who may very well have gone down as another Charles Barkley, into someone that was getting top 10 all-time buzz, up until recently.

He’s changed the game – he takes shots that used to get players benched, and made them, thus allowing him to turn traditionally “bad” shots into normal shots.

And lastly, Curry is a winner. Curry at his peak took over the NBA. When he had a superteam with Durant, people thought “the team was unfair”. And they would have threepeated if not for injury.

And all of this is because Curry is a) the greatest shooter of the basketball ever – in a sport where the most important skill is being able to put the basketball in the hoop – and b) he is the best off-ball player ever (and a good passer as well!). As result, he is one of the most versatile and unselfish players to play the game, and easy to build around. There’s a reason why many people – including former players – like to appoint him as a point guard in hypothetical starting 5s. He is too invaluable and impactful. And his impact on the court is something that has never been seen, ever. There is no one like Curry that can provide the unique impact he does. He is on a shortlist of very few players that would dramatically improve any team he is added to (or exchanged for). Even great times would soar higher with Steph on them.

Curry might not have 10 All-NBAs or 6 Finals MVPS, but if you had to pick a player to start and lead a franchise with, Curry would be a great choice to anchor your team around.

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Abdominal_snowman
Abdominal_snowman
18 days ago

Great article, just saw it on Twitter. I like how you mentioned Klay and Dray – as good as those guys are, man, we all know Kobe or LeBron would have gotten tired of Draymond’s act lmao. Curry can win with odd player fits.

You should do one for Tim Duncan next!

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