We Discovered the Best Way to Judge a QB in the Regular Season Part 5

This is the win record differential for many long term starters that came into the league in the early to mid 2010s.

Russel WIlson

Ryan Tannehill

Andrew Luck

Kirk Cousins

Geno Smith

Derek Carr

Jimmy Garoppolo

Jameis Winston

Marcus Mariota

Dak Prescott

Jared Goff

Takeaway

Russel Wilson had very strong defensive support as the average quarterback would have had a winning record with a difference of 2-4 games on average during Wilson’s first 5 seasons. During this time, Wilson had two good seasons (2 wins above average) in his 2nd and 3rd seasons while being average (slightly under a game above average) in his rookie season. During this time, he had solid offensive help that stemmed from the contributions of a star running back (Lynch) and a star center (Unger). When those two, along with a good receiver in Golden Tate, were no longer impactful due to injuries and mostly leaving the team during Wilson’s 4th and 5th seasons, Wilson’s record differential dropped back to just being under a full game above the average quarterback. This was the case even with WR Lockett and TE Graham contributing to the team during those two years.

Wilson started earning 3+ victories above average and even some high peak/MVP level seasons (5+ wins above average) during the 2018-2020 seasons even with bad defensive support. Brian Schottenheimer was the offensive coordinator during that three-year period. Steady seasons from 2018-2019 by RB Chris Carson and the emergence of WR DK Metcalf helped in 2019 during that time. Wilson’s play and its consequential record differentials from 2021 and onward has ranged from significantly below average to barely a game above average. When adding further context, his declining mobility and changes in defensive approaches focusing more on 2-deep safety coverages which exposes Wilson’s height limitation and inconsistencies playing on time also contributed to this. It seems as though Wilson’s ability to have a high record differential or even a very disappointing one, regardless of the defensive support, is very dependent on outside factors such as scheme, running back impact support, defensive coverages, and his own level of mobility. 

Ryan Tannehill basically amounts to being average to very marginally above average (0.64) during his time in the Dolphins. The aspect that sticks out is that his best record differential season there was in 2016 when he finished over 2 wins above average. In that season, his running back Jay Ajayi made a pro bowl. The other below average to marginally above average seasons in Miami had defensive support that varied from good to sub-mediocre. This season served as an indicator that having a star running back impacts Tannehill’s ability to have success relatively higher than the average quarterback on the teams he is on.

With the Titans, Tannehill had a lot of really good seasons and a high peak in 2020. In 2020, he had 5+ games won above average. It was an excellent season for Tannehill in which he supported 2020’s offensive player of the year running back Henry. This all happened despite bad defensive support that season. During that time, he had superstar running back Derrick Henry in the running back’s prime. He also benefits from having a very good receiver as a compliment to a star running back. The two examples of such receivers are Jarvis Landry in 2016 and AJ Brown in Tennessee. It is a compliment because Landry had a pro bowl in 2015, but Tannehill was average that season since he didn’t have a pro-bowl/all-pro level running back. Tannehill’s record differential dropped significantly in the following seasons when Henry regressed to being a very good running back and AJ Brown left. Tannehill’s record differential can be very high or low regardless of how good or bad his defensive support is based on how good the running back is and whether he also has a good receiver to provide additional support. 

Andrew Luck had excellent seasons (3-4 games won above average) in his first 3 seasons. He had a somewhat decent offensive supporting situation that had at least one pro bowl level receiver. The defensive support was actually solid as the average quarterback would have been around a game under .500 or close to .500 with the team. Luck’s record differential dropped to basically being close to average in 2015 while having worse defensive support. His last few healthy seasons had him near 3 games won above average, but it was not an increase from before despite having added support offensively. It may have been him shaking off rust coming back from an injury that kept him out of 2017. We do not know how the rest of his career would have played out. As a result, the sample size is too short to make a true assessment of his value as it pertains to how much he provides in wins above the average quarterback.

Kirk Cousins has had seasons where he’s been basically average, over a game above average, and 2-3 games above average. This has been the case whether he has strong or just solid offensive help, regardless of the type (coaching/scheme, receivers/tight ends, running back, offensive line). His outlier season was 2023, where he was a whopping 7 games above average. It was primarily due to him playing well, leading 8 game-winning drives, and helping wide receiver Justin Jefferson win offensive player of the year, but it wasn’t due to the quarterback being an MVP. He wasn’t able to win at least 2 games above average the following season with roughly the same offensive situation, albeit in less games.

Cousins has mostly had sub-mediocre to pretty bad defensive support. As a result, it has been difficult for him to consistently make the playoffs when he is only averaging around 2 games won above average. Cousins has had many teams built with unimpressive defensive support but usually standouts on offense and an overall good offensive situation. As a result, it would require him to at least average 3-4 wins above average at minimum to make the playoffs. We do not know what his differential would be with defensive support but sub-mediocre offensive help. In order to make the postseason more consistently, he basically needs to figure out how to generate more wins above average on offensively slanted teams or at least play at the same (or better) differential but on stronger defensive teams even if it means having less offensive help sometimes. For him to have success at the latter scenario, he would have to show he can be productive with mediocre offensive help.

Geno Smith amounted to being average in terms of record differential while on the Jets as he had defensive head coaches and not a great offensive supporting cast. His many years as a backup also hurt his career record differential. While playing for the Seahawks, he won a game less than average in 2021 in a short 3 game sample despite having productive individual linemen and excellent receivers. Things changed in 2022 as a primary starter when he won over 2 games above average as the team drafted running back Kenneth Walker, and he was very productive. The following 2 seasons, Geno Smith has been steady at winning over 2 games above average as they have had consistently productive wide receiver play but changes and struggles at the offensive line. Kenneth Walker has dealt with regression and injuries. Geno has consistently had defensive head coaches as a primary starter so far in his career. Smith has shown improvement since starting for the Seahawks. However, the question is finding out whether Geno is capable of having a great season by winning more than 3 games above average. Assuming he is, the next question is whether having an excellent offensive line or at least a few great individual offensive linemen is the key component to allowing this to happen or not.

Carr has consistently had really bad defensive support, as the average quarterback would have gone 5 games under .500 each season for almost all of Carr’s career based on the amount of points given up. Prior to 2022, Carr has shown that when he is healthy and has a good offensive situation, he can average close to 2 wins above average and even an impressive slightly over 4 wins above average in some seasons, regardless of his defensive support. Most of those seasons were with Gruden as the offensive-minded head coach entering the season. One of those latter types of seasons was in 2021 in which he had to deal with people leaving the team before and during the season. He was basically average in other seasons when he didn’t have that good of an offensive situation, such as in 2018. In 2016, before Gruden arrived, he had a great/MVP level season in which he won close to 7 games above average.

Things changed in 2022, since he was average relative to his defensive support situation despite notable additions and productivity on the offensive side of the ball. In 2023, he finally had good defensive support but still basically performed average even in a somewhat decent offensive situation. The trend continued in 2024 as he was very slightly below average in terms of record differential despite solid defensive support.

One change in circumstances that could explain why Carr has been average despite improvements in the offense and defense, respectively, in the two years can be attributed to the changes in defensive coverages. More teams are playing 2-deep safety coverages. Carr struggles against some of the variations of 2 deep safety coverages which have been used more by defensive coordinator in the last few seasons. He dealt with it at times in 2021, but playing with better receivers since that season ironically incentivizes defenses to use those types of coverages more to prevent big plays which seem to have hurt Carr. The signal caller will need to figure out a way in today’s defensive approach to get back to being able to have good to great record differentials moving forward so that if he is able to finally have good defensive support more consistently to go with it, then it will lead to more playoff appearances for him.

Garoppolo has alternated between pretty good record differentials and barely above ones, albeit in seasons that he didn’t finish or play in completion. Except for 2018, he has had defensive support that has ranged from solid to really good. 2019 was his best season as he had a record differential close to 5 games above average. In that season, he had very good rushing support and an all-pro season from tight end Kittle. In 2022, running back Christian McCaffrey made a pro-bowl but his best games came after Garoppolo was sidelined by an injury. He seems to stand a better chance of offering at least a good differential if he has good rushing support.

Winston had bad defensive support during his time with the Buccaneers, but his record differential climbed up to a good level in his second season. However, he then regressed to below average and then a little over average. His final season did have a differential of around 3 which is usually considered to be really good. This performance also coincided with what was his worst defensive support. When adding context, he did have over 30 turnovers, which is an anomaly in itself to the point where it could have hurt his defenses’ ability to keep the score low even if they weren’t already good to begin with. He usually had some good offensive help, and it was at its best in 2019 with the receivers playing well. His time with the Saints in his starts presented him with much better defensive support. However, his record differential in 2 years was basically average (over a game above and a little below average, respectively) even with a solid supporting offensive situation. Winston shows that over many years he cannot consistently produce good record differentials relative to any type of defensive support, regardless of the help on offense.

While playing for the Titans, Mariota started out with bad defensive support, but the defensive support soon improved and became solid. Starting in year 2, Mariota managed to have good record differentials (a little over 2) in with and without good defensive support, respectively. However, he regressed and has had basically average and noticeable below average record differentials regardless of the defensive and variations of offensive help around him. In 2019, some of his teammates, such as running back Derrick Henry looked better when he was benched. It seems as though whatever Mariota was doing to have success in wins above average has not held up past his 3rd season, implying that the league figured his style of play and that he has not fixed or overcome his flaws to adapt.

Prescott has overall had a pretty good record differential as it stands at a little over 2 games above average. An early fluctuation was with him having to adjust to playing without a superstar running back in Elliot in 2017, but he bounced back in 2018 with the midseason trade for wide receiver Amari Cooper. Dak has defensive support that ranged from sub-mediocre (the average QB would have been 2 games below .500) to solid (the average quarterback would have gone 0-2 games above .500). Prescott had an outlier 2019 season in which he did not a full game above average despite solid defensive support and a good offensive situation. Prescott not being dominant nor having even a single game-winning drive contributed to this despite his counting stats looking good.

Overall, Dak has been steady as a starter, but he has not had very high MVP level peaks (5+ wins above average). This is the case even with him having a consistently good offensive situation that mostly consists of competent offensive coaching, good running support, excellent offensive line play, and stars at receiver.  His highest was around 4, which is still great. The questions with Dak is whether he is capable of producing a high regular season peak even with good offensive help, if he could do so, especially in a year that would need it to make the playoffs if his defensive support was poor (ex. had he played the full 2020 season), and whether he could even sustain his current record differential average in season on a team with very strong defensive support (average quarterback would go 3+ games over .500) but with a significantly weaker offensive supporting cast. In 2024, he was average in terms of record differnetial with the main difference just being that his all-pro guard missed games and regressed while his tackle left in free agency, suggesting he is very dependent on his offensive line.

Goff has had defensive support that has ranged from really bad many times to solid a few times. On the teams that had really bad defensive support but had very young or below average offensive help, he played below average of what the average quarterback would have done in his situation in terms of wins. When Goff has had average to slightly above average help on offense even with solid to good defensive support (the average quarterback at or slightly over .500), he averages to just being a game above average.

Meanwhile, Goff has shown that he can be pretty good to even great (2.6 to 6+ wins above average) when he has an excellent and importantly complete offensive situation (offensive coaching, offensive line, receiving help, and running support). When he has that at the expense of good defensive support, he has shown that he can win 5+ games above average if needed with the offensive support to win a lot of games that season. Due to this, it seems as though the best way to build around Goff, especially with the improvements in his game, is to prioritize giving him a complete offensive situation as previously stated because he can produce fairly high peaks in wins to make up for a weaker defensive support. Meanwhile, he does not do as well from a record differential standpoint if he is given good defensive support but an average offensive situation.

Click here to read part 6 for more quarterback’s record differentials.