We Discovered the Best Way to Judge a QB in the Regular Season Part 6

This is the win record differential for many long term starters that came into the league in the early to late 2010s and very early 2020s.

Patrick Mahomes

Deshaun Watson

Josh Allen

Lamar Jackson

Baker Mayfield

Kyler Murray

Daniel Jones

Justin Herbert

Joe Burrow

Jalen Hurts

Tua Tagaovailoa

Jordan Love

Trevor Lawrence

Mac Jones

Justin Fields

Takeaway

Mahomes has basically had a regular great or MVP level season every year he has started up until 2023. This is reflected in his career record differentials being slightly over 4, and it includes peaks of 6+ in 2022, 2018, and 2020. He had excellent offensive support during those seasons. In some of those seasons, he did not have good defensive support in terms of how the average quarterback’s record would have been based on the points allowed. In 2024, he won close to 6 games above average but it happened due to 7 game winning drives rather than by having great production. In the two seasons Kelce regressed from all-pro level to pro bowl level (2023 and 2024), Mahomes won just under a game above average in one seasons and then won close to 6 but needed an abnormal amount of game winning drives to do in 2024 despite having good defensive support. This was with very good defensive support, consistent offensive coaching, and a few great offensive linemen even if there were question marks at receiver and at other parts on the line during the two year span. It will be interesting to see if Mahomes can win a lot of games above average moving forward if Kelce is no longer at an all-pro level. Was 2023 an outlier or was it a sign of things to come with 2024 being an outlier due to the amount of game winning drives.

For a few years, Watson was able to perform really well above the average quarterback in terms of wins with solid offensive support. His 2019 team was able to have such success even with the defensive support not being that impressive. However, he technically performed below average in 2020 despite having good stats. His lack of even a single game-winning drive, even when accounting for some bad breaks in a few games, played a role in this. His best offensive player, Deandre Hopkins, was traded. It appears his time away from football has since negatively affected his ability to get back to performing 3+ games above average. We will see if he can get back to that in Cleveland moving forward.

Josh Allen was basically below average and then average his first two seasons before making a huge leap and being almost 7 games above average in 2020 with only the addition of all-pro receiver Diggs, the only standout among the offensive supporting cast that year. 2020 was his worst defensive support as the average wouldn’t have gone even 7-10 with that team. However, in the following seasons, Allen fluctuated between being barely a game above average and excellent (in terms of wins above average). This correlated with Diggs fluctuating between playing at a regular pro bowl level and at an all-pro level despite some offensive support additions and having a strong defensive support floor (in terms of win that the average QB would have gotten based on the points allowed). In 2024, Allen lost his best receiver in Diggs and center in Mitch Morse but won over 4 games above average. This shows that he developed to where he can have such a great season with a good but not even great offensive supporting cast.

Based on the defensive support, the chart shows that the average quarterback would have had a winning record every season Lamar Jackson has started for the Ravens. Jackson has had decent offensive support by having a pro bowl/all-pro level tight end and usually star production from a couple of linemen and in the backfield. To Jackson’s credit, when he has been healthy for a full season, he has been really good to great in terms of how he wins relative to what the average quarterback would have done in those spots. Moving forward, we will see if having better receiving support can help Lamar Jackson have a record differential of 5+ or not. His two MVPs came with record differentials under 5. He won a little over 4 games above average when pro bowl level receiver in Zay Flowers. 2024 showed that he can still win a lot of games above average with a good offensive supporting cast when the defensive support is sub-mediocre. 2024 was Jackson’s highest record differential since 2019. The one constant variable in those two seasons was that Jackson had a very productive running back. Ingram made a pro bowl in 2019 and Henry was an all-pro. It seems as though Jackson’s impact on winning is at its highest when he has star running back in the backfield Lamar Jackson’s duel threat ability has gravity with the running back.

Mayfield has had multiple below average seasons and a few average to marginally above average season. His outlier season was 2020 in which he was 5.61 games above what an average quarterback would have done on a team that would have gone 5-11 with an average quarterback based on the chart. Such a number is associated with an MVP level season or a really good season working with an OPOY level skill position player. In Mayfield’s case, it was neither. Instead, it was a season in which he had strong offensive coaching and performances from each of his offensive line teammates that ranged from good to all-pro level. To Mayfield’s credit, he at least provided a superb peak under those circumstances and his many high scoring shootout wins contributed to the high record differential. In Baker’s career so far, he seems to need good offensive coaching and a high level offensive line, likely due to his height, in order to perform well above average. Just having one great lineman with one skill position standout is not enough to get him to be above average. In 2024, Mayfield manage to win over 2 games above average with only one star linemen and receiver (the other receiver Godwin got hurt). The difference was the offensive coordinator change. He might have improved as to where he doesn’t need a completely loaded offensive line but rather an overall solid offensive situation, specifically the coaching.

Daniel Jones has basically been below average relative to his circumstances in his career except for 2022 when he was good, with slightly over 2 games above average. To Jones’ credit, 2022 was his best offensive situation, but it was only solid at best. It was also his best defensive support in terms of how the average quarterback’s win percentage would have been. Time will tell if he can improve enough to last as a starter to be able to show that he can have higher peaks, fewer valleys regardless of circumstances, and gets to have better defensive support and offensive help. Kyler Murray has been average so far, with his best seasons (1.5-2.5 wins above average) being when he had a star wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins at his best and healthy (2020-2021). Murray also had his best defensive support in 2021. Time will tell how Murray develops and fares with Hopkins no longer there. It seems as though the Cardinals should prioritize giving Murray a great receiver to help him have a good record differential along with still having strong defensive support. We will see if he can provide a higher peak beyond just 2 games though. 2024 showed that giving him a star tight end and a productive running back isn’t enough to help him win even a full game above average. It will come down to whether Marvin Harrison Jr. becomes an elite receiver to give Kyler the help Hopkins did, assuming it can still be replicable with the current defensive direction of the league shifting to more 2 deep coverages.

Herbert has been mostly pretty good (2-4 games above average) in his career. His outlier season was 2023 in which he performed almost a full game below average. He may not have played badly throughout the season, but he managed only one game-winning drive in the clutch. It contrasts with the 5 game winning drives per season he had the prior two years. He has consistently had really bad defensive support in his career as the average QB likely averages 5 wins a season during his span. In contrast, Herbert has had some good offensive support, albeit injured prone in 2022 and 2023. His defensive support was mediocre in 2023 but it was great in 2024. The question comes from whether 2023 was an outlier for Herbert solely due to the health concerns and productivity of the offensive supporting cast as well as the coaching, or if there is more to it. In 2024, his record differential improved but to only a game above average, albeit his offensive supporting cast had an overall and was sub-mediocre at best. So far, his best record differential season (s) is when he has a healthy and productive offensive supporting cast, specifically at receiver and offensive line. We will also find out if he is capable of having a very high peak (5+) season under good circumstances (such as having a healthy offense again).

Since his rookie season on a bad team, Burrow has also been pretty good (2.5-4 games above average). In those seasons, he had really good offensive support from his skill position players but bad play from his offensive lines. He had solid defensive support in 2021 and 2022 as the average QB would have at or near .500. 2023 had bad defensive support for Burrow, but his injuries also affected his performance and, consequently, his ability to lead the team to more wins above the average quarterback in those circumstances. He finished just a game above average with 0 game-winning drives and didn’t finish the season. He showed that 2023 was a fluke due to his health issues by how he won over 3 games above average in 2024. It coincided with his receiver Chase making all-pro. His offensive line had issues with performance and health. We will also see if he can have a very high peak (5+ wins) and if it is only a matter of finally having a good offensive line at the same time as having good skill position players, regardless of the defense.

Since taking over as the primary starter in 2021, Hurts has had strong offensive support that features all-pro level and well-performing complimentary players on the offensive line and at the skill position groups. He had solid defensive support from 2021-2022. The defensive support weakens dramatically in 2023. From 2022-2023, Hurt has been great with his record differential of being 5+. His 2022 season was MVP caliber while his 2023 season was really good as he had bad defensive support but augmented with 4 game-winning drives rather than being dominant. There was a game drop off from 2022 to 2023 when his offensive coordinator Steichen left. There was another game drop between 2023 and 2024 despite another offensive coordinator change and an all-pro season from running back Saquan Barkley. The massive spike in Hurts’ record differential from 2021 to 2022 can be attributed to his development but also the improved support from his offensive skill position group to go with the already strong offensive line support. The question moving forward is how much of his ability to have a great record differential even with bad defensive support is tied to his offensive help compared to himself solely. The concern is wondering what type of drop off there would be if and when his offensive support gets worse (C Kelce retired) and how his offensive coaching can also impact things. Time will tell how great his own impact is.

Tua had defensive support that started out okay (the average quarterback would have been 1-2 under .500) but got a little worse (the average QB would have gone 3 under .500). It coincided with the overall offensive supporting cast improving significantly from the below average/average group he had in his first two years. Tua has had a steady record differential (close to 2 at lowest and as high as near 4 games above average) so far in his career. When he had better defensive support but a mediocre offensive situation, he was above average. When he had a worse defensive support but significantly better offensive situation, even with some offensive line injuries, his record differential increased by roughly 1-2 games. The concern, outside of health in multiple seasons, is whether Tua can provide higher peaks with his record differential, such as having 5+ games won above average, since he has a good offensive supporting cast.

Jordan Love didn’t’ play much in his first three seasons and didn’t impress enough to make the Packers start him in 2022, instead opting to give Rodgers an extension entering that season. As a primary starter, he’s had strong offensive coaching but hasn’t had any standouts at receiver. He won 2 games above average in 2024 compared to only winning just under 1 game in the prior season. The difference seems to be having a pro bowl level running back in 2024, suggesting that could be a factor in what it takes for Love to add win value.

For Lawrence, gaining Pederson as an offensive head coach and some solid offensive players such as running back Etienne, wide receiver Christian Kirk, and tight end Engram help him. However, he hasn’t won up to 2 games above average and ended up winning below average in 2024, suggesting the impact of the support wasn’t sustainable. The issue with Lawrence is whether he can win produce any time of excellent to great situation even if the offensive support is really good. His record differential currently has him as just being average.

Mac Jones has won a game below average. When having a solid offensive situation in 2021, he was average. When it worsened in the following seasons (albeit having a defensive coach assigned to be an offensive coordinator is extreme), he drastically underperformed. Even with a better receiving talent in Brian Thomas, he still won a game below average in 2024.

Justin Fields has also won a game below average in his career so far. He was only winning close to 2 games below average in his first two years, albeit without a good offensive supporting cast and with bad defensive support. In the following two seasons when his defenses significantly improved and his offenses also improved, albeit modestly, it only helped to slightly increase his record differential. In those two seasons, he still won below average but was marginally below average instead of almost 2 games below average.