Coming up with tiers is the best way to judge QBs. Why? Wins are too simplistic. They do not take into account circumstances – some teams are better than others. Some QBs have better weapons and defenses. And it has been disproven – look at how much Matthew Stafford’s career has changed going from LA […]
A lot of people do not realize that NFL games are already decided before they are played. We love to discuss “intangibles”. Or how “this team didn’t take the other team seriously enough”. Or how “that QB just didn’t show up in the playoffs when the lights were bright”. All this crap. But it doesn’t
NFL Games Are Won Before they are played Read More »
What is a Super Bowl Caliber Roster? A Super Bowl Caliber roster is a roster that is… well… good enough to win a Super Bowl with. Contrary to what most NFL fans think, QBs don’t just “will” a team to a Super Bowl trophy. Coaches can’t always turn any bad roster into an elite one.
What is a Super Bowl Caliber Roster? Read More »
In short, an Elite QB is a QB that has skills that can overcome the play not working. Every QB’s job is to execute the play: understand what receiver they should throw to (based on the play call), and make the right decision. Or hand the ball off. But if the primary receiver just isn’t
Elite QB: What Makes an NFL QB Elite Read More »
This article is a part of our series, NFL QB Archetypes. Hybrid QBs are a classic of elite QBs that have many of the elite QB traits, AND their own unique “tricks” to elevate themselves above the play design. Let’s review the elite traits, as a reminder. Elite QB Traits Technically, all elite QBs usually
NFL QB Archetypes: Hybrid Read More »
People have been proclaiming Mahomes the best QB ever, and claiming he is already the GOAT. They point to his career accolades, clutch factor, and physical standpoint. People have this idea that Mahomes is this amazing, gotta-have-it-all, big game savant that is uniquely special and gifted. That he is better than his peers. But those
Patrick Mahomes – The Manufactured GOAT Read More »
There are many ways to grade QB’s performances. Some use statistics, others use wins and intangibles. Each of these have their flaws, of course. Using just stats is flawed, because basic QB stats or even advanced QB stats (passer rating, EPA, etc.) don’t tell us anything about the teammates they are playing with and how
New QB Stat: Adjusted Passer Rating (Preliminary) Read More »
The goal here is to assess proper credit for how a quarterback is impacting winning on his team. This is done by finding out how many games the team would have won with an average quarterback and then seeing whether the quarterback specifically analyzed won as much, more, or even less than what the average
This is the win record differential for many long term starters that came into the league in the early to late 2010s and very early 2020s. Patrick Mahomes Seasons Teams Record Projected +/- Context 2017 KC 1-0 0.388-0.612 0.61 not yet a fulltime starter, on the bench, had offensive minded head coach Andy Reid for
We Discovered the Best Way to Judge a QB in the Regular Season Part 6 Read More »
The discourse around how many judge quarterbacks, specifically in the postseason, tends to be extreme. Some believe that if a quarterback’s team wins then it is automatically because of him and that he is somehow a winner. Meanwhile, others believe that the quarterback is replaceable and that other quarterbacks could have had the same team
We Discovered the Best Way to Judge a QB in the Postseason Read More »
This piece shows the window for each AFC team in the last 20+ years and what each teams’ current window is (if applicable) or could be (if things materialized). The starting point, duration, and ending point of a team’s championship window is usually determined by the key catalyst (a head coach, quarterback, collection of elite
Every AFC Team’s Past, Current, and Potential Championship Windows In the 21st Century Read More »
Statistics record information about what is happening. This person scored points, blocked shots, caught passes, etc. But they cannot be used exclusively to draw conclusions. They do not actually tell the whole story. This is because statistics – especially basic counting statistics – are inherently vague and blurry. They are not precise because they only
Stats Do Not Tell The Whole Story Read More »