A lot of people do not realize that NFL games are already decided before they are played. We love to discuss “intangibles”. Or how “this team didn’t take the other team seriously enough”. Or how “that QB just didn’t show up in the playoffs when the lights were bright”. All this crap. But it doesn’t […]
NFL Games Are Won Before they are played Read More »
In short, an Elite QB is a QB that has skills that can overcome the play not working. Every QB’s job is to execute the play: understand what receiver they should throw to (based on the play call), and make the right decision. Or hand the ball off. But if the primary receiver just isn’t
Elite QB: What Makes an NFL QB Elite Read More »
The goal here is to assess proper credit for how a quarterback is impacting winning on his team. This is done by finding out how many games the team would have won with an average quarterback and then seeing whether the quarterback specifically analyzed won as much, more, or even less than what the average
This is the win record differential for many long term starters that came into the league in the early to late 2010s and very early 2020s. Patrick Mahomes Seasons Teams Record Projected +/- Context 2017 KC 1-0 0.388-0.612 0.61 not yet a fulltime starter, on the bench, had offensive minded head coach Andy Reid for
We Discovered the Best Way to Judge a QB in the Regular Season Part 6 Read More »
This is the win record differential for many long term starters that came into the league in the mid to late 2000s and early 2010s. Alex Smith Seasons Teams Record Projected +/- Context 2005 SF 2-5 2.62-4.38 -0.62 2006 SF 7-9 5.98-10.02 1.02 Norv Turner replaced Mike McCarthy as OC, G Larry Allen and RB
We Discovered the Best Way to Judge a QB in the Regular Season Part 4 Read More »
This is the win record differential for many long term starters that came into the league in the early 2000s or at least became starters in the early 2000s. Donovan McNabb Season Team Record Projected +/- Context 1999 PHI 1-5 1.82-4.18 -0.82 had offensive minded coach Andy Reid for the whole time in the Eagles
We Discovered the Best Way to Judge a QB in the Regular Season Part 2 Read More »
Recently, an article based on a quarterback’s postseason success was posted here. Some of the many points stated in that article will be stated here as well. Some people like to call any quarterback with a winning record “a winner” even if it is a small sample size of games or from a season-worth sample
We Discovered the Best Way to Judge a QB in the Regular Season Part 1 Read More »
The discourse around how many judge quarterbacks, specifically in the postseason, tends to be extreme. Some believe that if a quarterback’s team wins then it is automatically because of him and that he is somehow a winner. Meanwhile, others believe that the quarterback is replaceable and that other quarterbacks could have had the same team
We Discovered the Best Way to Judge a QB in the Postseason Read More »
This piece shows the window for each AFC team in the last 20+ years and what each teams’ current window is (if applicable) or could be (if things materialized). The starting point, duration, and ending point of a team’s championship window is usually determined by the key catalyst (a head coach, quarterback, collection of elite
Every AFC Team’s Past, Current, and Potential Championship Windows In the 21st Century Read More »
We had an article defining choking, that, in the last paragraph, acknowledged that choking could just be a sign of a player’s flaws. When a player has bad playoff performances, we call them a choker. We imply that the moment is too big for them, but it may be more accurate that they simply get
Many “Playoff Chokers” Just Have Big Flaws Read More »
Statistics record information about what is happening. This person scored points, blocked shots, caught passes, etc. But they cannot be used exclusively to draw conclusions. They do not actually tell the whole story. This is because statistics – especially basic counting statistics – are inherently vague and blurry. They are not precise because they only
Stats Do Not Tell The Whole Story Read More »
Many QBs seem like the victim of bad situations. Then they move to greener pastures. Then they excel! But don’t win in the playoffs, and eventually, it fizzles out. The reality is that a lot of these QBs are who they are. Yes, a good coach or team around them can elevate their numbers and
QBs Are Who They Are, Regardless of Situation Read More »