This is the win record differential for many long term starters that came into the league in the mid to late 2000s and early 2010s.
Alex Smith
| Seasons | Teams | Record | Projected | +/- | Context |
| 2005 | SF | 2-5 | 2.62-4.38 | -0.62 | |
| 2006 | SF | 7-9 | 5.98-10.02 | 1.02 | Norv Turner replaced Mike McCarthy as OC, G Larry Allen and RB Gore made a pro bowl |
| 2007 | SF | 2-5 | 3.54-3.46 | -1.54 | Hostler replaced Norv Turner as OC |
| 2008 | SF | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | injured all year, didn’t play, defensive minded head coach Singletary replaced defensive head coach Nolan |
| 2009 | SF | 5-5 | 6.11-3.90 | -1.11 | 0 gw drives. Raye replaced Mike Martz as the OC, T Vernon Davis and RB Gore made a pro bowl |
| 2010 | SF | 3-7 | 4.11-5.89 | -1.11 | RB Gore missed some games |
| 2011 | SF | 13-3 | 10.12-5.88 | 2.88 | 5 gw drives. Head Coach Harbaugh arrives. RB Gore made a pro bowl. LT Staley made an all-pro. WR Crabtree emerged |
| 2012 | SF | 6-2 | 5.21-2.79 | 0.79 | 0 gw drives. Gets hurt and benched (misses half the season. Gore made a pro bowl. Staley and G Iupati made all pros. Davis regresses. Crabtree remains productive |
| 2013 | KC | 11-4 | 7.93-7.07 | 3.07 | T Albert made a pro bowl. RB Charles made an all-pro. |
| 2014 | KC | 8-7 | 8.52-6.48 | -0.52 | T Albert left. Charles made a pro bowl. |
| 2015 | KC | 11-5 | 9.11-6.89 | 1.89 | WR Bowe left but WR Maclin arrived. TE Kelce made a pro bowl. Charles missed a lot games this yr and next before leaving. |
| 2016 | KC | 11-4 | 7.54-7.46 | 3.46 | TE Kelce made an all-pro. WR Hill is drafted and technically makes all pro |
| 2017 | KC | 9-6 | 7.19-7.81 | 1.81 | TE Kelce made an all-pro. WR Hill makes a pro bowl. RB Hunt made a pro bowl. |
| 2018 | WAS | 6-4 | 5.06-4.94 | 0.94 | T Williams made a pro bowl. |
| 2019 | WAS | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | T Williams did not play |
| 2020 | WAS | 5-1 | 3.68-6.25 | 1.32 | T Williams leaves |
Jay Cutler
| Seasons | Teams | Record | Projected | +/- | Context |
| 2006 | DEN | 2-3 | 1.51-3.49 | 0.49 | on the bench mostly, had offensively minded head coach Mike Shanahan |
| 2007 | DEN | 7-9 | 5.86-10.14 | 1.14 | WR Marshall emerged |
| 2008 | DEN | 8-8 | 4.79-11.21 | 3.21 | 4 game winning drives. G Wiegmann and WR Marshall made a pro bowl |
| 2009 | CHI | 7-9 | 6.87 9.13 | 0.13 | |
| 2010 | CHI | 10-5 | 7.01-7.00 | 3.00 | 4 gw drives. Mike Martz became the OC and repalces Ron Turner. WR/KR Hester made an all-pro. Forte was productive |
| 2011 | CHI | 7-3 | 4.80-5.20 | 2.20 | |
| 2012 | CHI | 10-5 | 9.03-5.97 | 0.97 | Martz leaves/Mike Tice replaces him as OC. WR Marshall arrives and made an all-pro. Jeffrey drafted. Forte was productive. |
| 2013 | CHI | 5-6 | 2.34-8.66 | 2.66 | RB Forte, WR Marshall, WR Jeffrey, and G Long (drafted) made pro bowls. Offensive Head Coach Trestman arrived and replaced defensive head coach Lovie Smith. TE Bennett is productive. Cutler missed some games |
| 2014 | CHI | 5-10 | 5.18-9.82 | -0.18 | Only 1 gw drive. G Long made an all-pro. TE Bennett made a pro bowl |
| 2015 | CHI | 6-9 | 5.63-9.37 | 0.37 | Average despite 4 gw drives. Trestman fired/defensive minded John Fox replaces him. Long made a pro bowl. Forte and Marshall left |
| 2016 | CHI | 1-4 | 1.92-3.08 | -0.92 | TE Bennett left. G Sitton and RB Howard made pro bowls. |
| 2017 | MIA | 6-8 | 6.00-8.00 | 0.00 | had offensive head coach Adam Gase, WR Landry made a pro bowl |
Matt Ryan
| Seasons | Teams | Record | Projected | +/- | Context |
| 2008 | ATL | 11-5 | 7.36-8.64 | 3.64 | 4 gw drives. WR White made a pro bowl. RB Turner made an all-pro. |
| 2009 | ATL | 9-5 | 7.46-6.54 | 1.54 | RB Turner missed some games. White made a pro bowl |
| 2010 | ATL | 13-3 | 8.33-5.67 | 4.67 | 6 gw drives. RB Turner and WR White both made an all-pro. TE Gonzalez arrives and makes a pro bowl. RT Cabo makes a pro bowl |
| 2011 | ATL | 10-6 | 6.97-9.03 | 3.03 | WR White and TE Gonzalez both made a pro bowl. WR Jones drafted |
| 2012 | ATL | 13-3 | 8.09-7.91 | 4.91 | Koetter replaced Mularkey as OC, 6 gw drives TE Gonzalez made an all-pro. WR Jones made a pro bowl. RB Turner regressed |
| 2013 | ATL | 4-12 | 3.77-12.23 | 0.23 | Only 1 gw drive. RB Turner retires. WR White regressed. WR Jones missed most of the season. average despite 4 gw drives. |
| 2014 | ATL | 6-10 | 4.88-11.13 | 1.13 | WR Jones made a pro bowl. WR White bounced back. Gonzalez retired |
| 2015 | ATL | 8-8 | 7.17-8.83 | 0.83 | RB Freeman, WR Jones, and FB DiMarco made an all-pro. defensive head coach Dan Quinn replaced defensive head coach Mike Smith. first yr in OC Shanahan’s offense |
| 2016 | ATL | 11-5 | 5.20-10.80 | 5.80 | C Mack and Jones made an all-pro. RB Freeman made a pro bowl. WR Sanu arrived. 2nd yr in OC Shanahan’s offense. WR White retired |
| 2017 | ATL | 10-6 | 8.07-7.93 | 1.93 | C Mack and WR Jones made an all-pro. OC Shanahan left/Sarkisian takes over |
| 2018 | ATL | 7-9 | 5.28-10.72 | 1.72 | C Mack, TE Hooper, and LT Matthews made a pro bowl. Jones made an al-pro this yr and next. WR Ridley drafted. RB Freeman missed games before leaving after a yr. |
| 2019 | ATL | 7-8 | 5.50-9.50 | 1.50 | TE Hooper made a pro bowl. OC Sarkisian left/replaced by Koetter |
| 2020 | ATL | 4-12 | 5.25-10.76 | -1.25 | 0 gw drives. TE Hooper leaves. WR Jones misses games and regresses. WR Ridley emerges |
| 2021 | ATL | 7-10 | 5.40-11.60 | 1.60 | TE Pitts drafted and makes a pro bowl. Jones leaves |
| 2022 | IND | 4-7 | 4.97-7.03 | -0.97 | offensive line (including G nelson) regressed despite Nelson making a pro bowl. Ryan struggled despite 4 gw drives (the only wins they got) |
Joe Flacco
| Seasons | Teams | Record | Projected | +/- | Context |
| 2008 | BAL | 11-5 | 10.88-5.12 | 0.12 | FB McClain made an all-pro |
| 2009 | BAL | 9-7 | 9-7 | 0 | FB McClain and RB Rice both all-pros |
| 2010 | BAL | 12-4 | 9.93-6.08 | 2.08 | 4 gw drives. WR Boldin arrives |
| 2011 | BAL | 12-4 | 9.69-6.31 | 2.31 | FB Leach, RB Rice, and G Yanda all made all-pros. G Grubs made a pro bowl. |
| 2012 | BAL | 10-6 | 7.72-8.29 | 2.29 | FB Veach and G Yanda both made an all-pro. Rice made a pro bowl. Jim Caldwell replaced Cam Cameron as OC – it occured later in the season |
| 2013 | BAL | 8-8 | 7.27-8.73 | 0.73 | Boldin left. Rice regressed. Yanda made a pro bowl. very average despite 4 gw drives. |
| 2014 | BAL | 10-6 | 8.83-7.17 | 1.17 | Kubiak became the OC. RB Forsett made a pro bowl. WR Steve Smith arrives. G Yanda made an all-pro from 2014-2016. Rice left |
| 2015 | BAL | 3-7 | 3.54-7.89 | -0.54 | OC Kubiak left and Trestman took over as OC. WR Smith later got hurt. Flacco got hurt later |
| 2016 | BAL | 8-8 | 7.49-8.51 | 0.51 | FB Juszczyk and C Zuttah made a pro bowl. Mornhinweg replaced Trestman as OC during the season |
| 2017 | BAL | 9-7 | 8.14-7.86 | 0.86 | 0 gw drives. WR Smith retired |
| 2018 | BAL | 4-5 | 5.00-4.00 | -1.00 | 0 gw drives. got hurt and benched |
| 2019 | DEN | 2-6 | 3.88-4.12 | -1.88 | RB Lindsay was productive. WR Sutton made a pro bowl. Had defensive head coach Vic Fangio |
| 2020 | NYJ | 0-4 | 0.77-3.23 | -0.77 | bench player moving forward |
| 2021 | NYJ | 0-1 | 0.39-0.61 | -0.39 | |
| 2022 | NYJ | 1-3 | 1.49-2.51 | -0.49 | |
| 2023 | CLE | 4-1 | 1.65-3.35 | 2.35 | LG Bitonio, RG Teller, TE Njoku, and WR Cooper all made pro bowls. Offensive minded head coach Stefanski is there |
Matthew Stafford
| Seasons | Teams | Record | Projected | +/- | Context |
| 2009 | DET | 2-8 | 2.33 7.67 | -0.33 | |
| 2010 | DET | 1-2 | 1.30 1.70 | -0.30 | Got hurt early in the yr. WR Johnson made an all-pro. |
| 2011 | DET | 10-6 | 6.22 9.78 | 3.78 | 4 gw drives. WR Johnson made an all-pro and continued to until 2013. TE Pettigrew emerged |
| 2012 | DET | 4-12 | 4.46 11.54 | -0.46 | post-2011 lockout season |
| 2013 | DET | 7-9 | 6.33 9.68 | 0.68 | |
| 2014 | DET | 11-5 | 8.92 7.09 | 2.09 | Head Coach Jim Caldwell replaced defensive minded head coach Jim Schwartz, 5 gw drives. WR Tate arrived. He and WR Johnson made a pro bowl. |
| 2015 | DET | 7-9 | 5.60-10.40 | 1.40 | OC Lombardi fired and replaced by Cooter during the season |
| 2016 | DET | 9-7 | 6.57-9.43 | 2.43 | 8 game winning drives. G Lang made a pro bowl this year and next. WR Johnson retired |
| 2017 | DET | 9-7 | 6.93-9.07 | 2.07 | |
| 2018 | DET | 6-10 | 6.57 9.43 | -0.57 | Defensive minded head coach Patricia replaced Caldwell, WR Tate traded away during the season. WR Golladay emerged |
| 2019 | DET | 3-4 | 2.30 5.70 | 0.70 | Bevell replaced Cooter as the OC, WR Golladay made a pro bowl. |
| 2020 | DET | 5-11 | 2.80 13.20 | 2.20 | WR Hockenson made a pro bowl. C Ragnow made an all-pro. Golladay missed a lot of games |
| 2021 | LAR | 12-5 | 7.50 9.51 | 4.51 | 4 gw drives. first yr in offensive minded head coach Sean McVay’s offense. WR Kupp made all-pro |
| 2022 | LAR | 3-6 | 3.68 5.32 | -0.68 | Got hurt later. WR Beckham and WR Woods left. T Whitworth retired. Kupp missed some games later. Some o-line struggles. |
| 2023 | LAR | 9-6 | 6.74 8.26 | 2.26 | RB Williams and WR Nacua made all-pro. Kupp missed some games, drafted G Avilia and traded for G Dotson |
| 2024 | LAR | 10-6 | 7.60-8.40 | 2.40 | drafted Center Limmer, TE Higbee missed almost all of the season, RB Williams was productive, WR Kupp missed 6 games, WR Nacua missed 6 games but was productive |
Andy Dalton
| Seasons | Teams | Record | Projected | +/- | Context |
| 2011 | CIN | 9-7 | 7.86-8.00 | 1.14 | 4 gw drives. WR Green and TE Grasham made pro bowls |
| 2012 | CIN | 10-6 | 8.57-7.43 | 1.43 | TE Gresham and LT Whitworth made a pro bowl. WR green made an all-pro |
| 2013 | CIN | 11-5 | 8.67-7.33 | 2.33 | WR green made an all-pro |
| 2014 | CIN | 10-5-1 | 7.57-8.43 | 2.43 | OC Gruden left and replaced with OC Hue Jackson (first yr). Green made pro bowls from 2014-2017. Whitworth made an all-pro |
| 2015 | CIN | 10-3 | 7.72-5.28 | 2.28 | Whitworth made an all-pro. TE Eifert made a pro bowl. WR Marvin Jones emerged. Year 2 in OC Jackson’s offense |
| 2016 | CIN | 6-9 | 8.01-7.99 | -2.01 | Only 1 gw drives. OC Jackson left/replaced by Zampese, T Whitworth made a pro bowl. WRs Jones and Sanu left. |
| 2017 | CIN | 7-9 | 6.60-9.40 | 0.40 | Whitworth left. OC Zampese fired early in the year/replaced by Lazor |
| 2018 | CIN | 5-6 | 2.21-8.79 | 2.79 | 4 gw drives. HB Mixon and WR Boyd emerged. Dalton got hurt later along with Green |
| 2019 | CIN | 2-11 | 3.67-9.33 | -1.67 | Offensive minded head coach Zac Taylor take over, Green missed all of the season. Mixon and Boyd were still productive though. |
| 2020 | DAL | 4-5 | 2.69-6.31 | 1.31 | had offensive head coach Mike McCarthy |
| 2021 | CHI | 3-3 | 2.60-3.40 | 0.40 | had offensive head coach Matt Nagy, got benched soon |
| 2022 | NO | 6-8 | 7.33 6.68 | -1.33 | WR Thomas missed a lot of the season, had defensive head coach Dennis Allen |
| 2023 | CAR | 0-1 | 0.04-0.96 | -0.04 | on the bench |
| 2024 | CAR | 1-4 | 0.53-4.47 | 0.47 | backup, had offensive head coach Caneles take over, drafted WRs Legette and Coker (undrafted), Guards Lewis and Hunt arrived, WR Thielen missed 7 games (all but 1 of the games Dalton started) |
Cam Newton
| Seasons | Teams | Record | Projected | +/- | Context |
| 2011 | CAR | 6-10 | 5.32-10.68 | 0.68 | Only 1 gw drive. C Kalili made an all pro. WR Smith made a pro bowl. |
| 2012 | CAR | 7-9 | 6.30-9.70 | 0.70 | Only 1 gw drive. C Kalil missed most of the season |
| 2013 | CAR | 12-4 | 10.80-5.20 | 1.20 | 4 gw drives. OC Shula replaced Shudzinski. T Gross made a pro bowl. FB Tolbert made an all-pro |
| 2014 | CAR | 5-8-1 | 5.76-8.24 | -0.76 | T Gross retired. Olsen made a pro bowl. WR Benjamin is drafted and emerged |
| 2015 | CAR | 15-1 | 8.18-7.82 | 6.82 | 4 gw drives. FB Tolbert and TE Olsen made an all-pro. G Turner and RB Stewart made a pro bowl from 2015-2019 |
| 2016 | CAR | 6-9 | 5.59-9.41 | 0.41 | FB Tolbert made a pro bowl. Olsen made an all-pro |
| 2017 | CAR | 11-5 | 7.04-8.96 | 3.96 | RB McCaffrey drafted. G Norwell made an all-pro. WR Benjamin traded away during the season |
| 2018 | CAR | 6-8 | 5.19-8.81 | 0.81 | Norv Turner became the OC and replaced Shula. Hurt shoulder later in the year. WR Moore drafted. McCaffrey made an all-pro this yr and next. |
| 2019 | CAR | 0-2 | 0.70-1.30 | -0.70 | got hurt early and missed rest of the season. Kalil retired |
| 2020 | NE | 7-8 | 6.31-8.69 | 0.69 | struggling wr core, had defensive coach Bill Belichick |
| 2021 | CAR | 0-5 | 0.86-4.15 | -0.86 | came later in the year. WR Moore emerged. RB McCaffrey missed most of the season, Matt Rhule is the head coach |
Takeaway
Alex Smith was noticeably better when he had good offensive coaching with Harbaugh and Reid compared to his average and even below average record differential seasons when he didn’t have offensively minded coaches. However, he didn’t have any high peaks (4+ wins above the average QB) even when he had a very good offensive situation in terms of talent in 2016 and 2017. Cutler had some good stretches (around 3 games above average) when he had good offensive coaching and very good offensive talent but also lacked high peaks and even had a disappointing 2014 season in such a situation.
Matt Ryan had a few peaks (4+ wins above average) when given very good/great offensive support (especially at receiver and running back) but was usually average to only slightly above average (0 to 1.5 games above average) when given even a little less, especially when he had a big contract. Flacco was basically average throughout except for some seasons when he was at least good (2 games above average), such as in 2010, 2014, and 2023. He usually had one good receiver playing well in those cases.
An excellent season for Stafford was in 2011 when the lockout hurt defenses that season. Other than that, his performances range from below average, to average, to slightly above average outside 2021 when he was great when with Kupp and McVay. Before 2023, he didn’t have good run support. In 2023 and 2024, Stafford has good running game support from Kyren WIlliams and good receiving support from Puka Nacua despite Cooper Kupp declining. It seems so far that the one variable that leads to Stafford having a great seasons (winning 3+ games above average) is when he has a receiver that not only has an all-pro season but a historic one (2011 Calvin Johnson and 2021 Cooper Kupp).
Dalton’s best season was 2015. He won 2 games above average but the issue is Dalton was good when he had an excellent offensive situation (receivers, protection, and scheme) but ranged from below average, average, and slightly above average when the offensive situation was any less than great. Even with good receiving help in his first few seasons, Newton was basically average outside his huge peak in 2015 (close to 7 games above average). He had such a season while only having good run game support, but not necessarily wide receiver or passing scheme support. One other really good season was 2017 from him.
Click here to read part 5 for more quarterback’s record differentials.
