“This player would have won if he had better teammates!”
“This guy is lucky to be playing with another good defender”
“He only won because his front office is elite”.
There’s a lot of variance in the world.
Same with sports.
The reality is that certain things were meant to be, at least in the sports world. I know this may make some people get upset or cynical, as it sounds like I am saying destiny and fate are real and that we don’t have much control over our circumstances. But the reality is that certain choices or traits that were present in the past, can shape someone’s future – we can all agree with that. And so in sports, some players were destined to have the success or failures they had. This article will mostly use QBs out of convenience.
A player like Brett Favre was always going to end up in a good spot. Favre was drafted by the Atlanta Falcons, but was traded to the Packers partly because he was a developmental project the coach didn’t want, but also because of his immaturity and alcohol usage. Why did the Packers take him in? The physical talent and late-game heroics Favre possessed in college were special.
To put it simply, someone with his arm and mobility was always going to be coveted – especially by a team with a vertical passing scheme and offensive minded head coach – which is exactly what the early 90s Green Bay Packers had with coach Mike Holmgren.
Similarly, it’s easy to say that Patrick Mahomes landed in a good spot. But the odds of that happening were high. After all, the Chiefs traded UP to get him. And the Saints were considering it too. Why? For reasons similar to Favre – Mahomes
Why? Because he was an insane physical talent.
Sean Payton himself said:
“When we evaluated him, he was clearly an elite player, the best quarterback I’d ever seen on college tape”.
What if the Bears had gotten him, you say? Well, in 2018, the Bears were 12-4 with Mitch Trubisky, and were a missed field goal away from a divisional round appearance. And they had a defense that led the league in forced turnovers by a wide margin. Would Mahomes have not gotten a deep playoff run with that team? Not to mention, free agent receivers would consider going there. Look at how the Chiefs attracted JuJu Smith-Schuster this year.
Success finds you when you are a really good and important player. So it is not really a coincidence when a great player ends up being surrounded with great talent.
Now obviously, it doesn’t mean a player can’t have bad front offices fail to build around their talent (see Kevin Garnett, or some of the years where the Saints had bad defenses around Drew Brees). But these are not the rule.
Similarly, one can say that Matt Stafford completely negates the entire premise of this article. Stafford has an incredible arm. Yet, because he was so good, he was rewarded by being drafted to the Detroit Lions. And later had the misfortune of having Matt Patricia as his head coach.
However, one can say otherwise – that eventually, that talent is what made Matthew Stafford appealing and attractive for the Los Angeles Rams to trade for him. Head coach Sean McVay employed a dynamic offense with the Rams, but grew disillusioned with starting QB Jared Goff.
So Stafford was a QB that the Rams had their eye on. It’s very telling that this is how their season started off:
Not to mention, one could argue that even though the Lions are… the Lions, Stafford still was complicit: with head coach Jim Caldwell, the Lions did make the playoffs 2x in a 4 year span. But Stafford had some bad games and underwhelmed in others that limited their success, and made them fire Caldwell and bring in Patricia in the first place.
Basically, the point is that certain things were always going to happen. What it means is that it is not always “luck” when a player finds success. Because the reality is that water seeks its level sometimes. Players with great attributes and traits, will attract great situations sometimes.
Look at how players like Gronkowski and Antonio Brown followed Brady to Tampa. How they drafted and hit on Tristan Wirfs. Was that Brady being lucky? Or is that Brady’s greatness attracting other great players, and the Buccaneers having an easier time drafting since they knew their only position of need at that point was to get a right tackle (tackles have a high success rate) to protect Brady? Same with Steph Curry. Is it luck that he Kevin Durant came along, making it easier for him to win two rings? Or is that Curry’s greatness and style of play that made it easy for Golden State to run a juggernaut offense that Durant found appealing and wanted to join?
You tell me.
