Tom Brady

NFL Games Are Won Before they are played

A lot of people do not realize that NFL games are already decided before they are played. We love to discuss “intangibles”. Or how “this team didn’t take the other team seriously enough”. Or how “that QB just didn’t show up in the playoffs when the lights were bright”. All this crap. But it doesn’t

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What is a Super Bowl Caliber Roster?

What is a Super Bowl Caliber Roster? A Super Bowl Caliber roster is a roster that is… well… good enough to win a Super Bowl with. Contrary to what most NFL fans think, QBs don’t just “will” a team to a Super Bowl trophy. Coaches can’t always turn any bad roster into an elite one.

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We Discovered the Best Way to Judge Quarterbacks in the Regular Season and Postseason Combined

The goal here is to assess proper credit for how a quarterback is impacting winning on his team. This is done by finding out how many games the team would have won with an average quarterback and then seeing whether the quarterback specifically analyzed won as much, more, or even less than what the average

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We Discovered the Best Way to Judge a QB in the Regular Season Part 6

This is the win record differential for many long term starters that came into the league in the early to late 2010s and very early 2020s. Patrick Mahomes Seasons Teams Record Projected +/- Context 2017 KC 1-0 0.388-0.612 0.61 not yet a fulltime starter, on the bench, had offensive minded head coach Andy Reid for

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We Discovered the Best Way to Judge a QB in the Regular Season Part 5

This is the win record differential for many long term starters that came into the league in the early to mid 2010s. Russel WIlson Seasons Teams Record Projected +/- Context 2012 SEA 11-5 10.19-5.81 0.81 T Okung made a pro bowl. RB Lynch and C Unger made all pros. 4 game winning drives despite average

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We Discovered the Best Way to Judge a QB in the Regular Season Part 4

This is the win record differential for many long term starters that came into the league in the mid to late 2000s and early 2010s. Alex Smith Seasons Teams Record Projected +/- Context 2005 SF 2-5 2.62-4.38 -0.62 2006 SF 7-9 5.98-10.02 1.02 Norv Turner replaced Mike McCarthy as OC, G Larry Allen and RB

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We Discovered the Best Way to Judge a QB in the Regular Season Part 3

This is the win record differential for many long term starters that came into the league in the early-mid 2000s (specifically 2003 and 2004). Ben Roethlisberger Season Team Record Projected +/- Context 2004 PIT 13-0 9.03-3.97 3.97 5 gw drives, RB Bettis and LT Marvel Smith made pro bowls. WR Ward, G Faneca, and C

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We Discovered the Best Way to Judge a QB in the Regular Season Part 2

This is the win record differential for many long term starters that came into the league in the early 2000s or at least became starters in the early 2000s. Donovan McNabb Season Team Record Projected +/- Context 1999 PHI 1-5 1.82-4.18 -0.82 had offensive minded coach Andy Reid for the whole time in the Eagles

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